“ The only thing that kept the Cold War cold was the mutual deterrence afforded by nuclear weapons.” — Chung Mong Join
Direct wars between major nations, possessing WsMD (weapons of mass Destruction) though cannot be ruled out but they take the shape of using proxies . The proxies may vary from smaller nations , terrorist organisations , secessionist and disgruntled elements of one’s adversaries . Even non- kinetic means such as economic sanctions, misinformation, promoting instability by using political opponents. What happened in Bangla Desh in 2024 was an example of bringing regime change by using proxies. Therefore, as weapon systems get more and more advanced with deadly lethality, computerised accuracy and ranges beyond visual range (BVR), use of proxies in what ever form, have become favourite mode of conducting a war .
Why is it so ? A Rand Corporation study report, a few years back, on a nuclear exchange between USA and Russia had suggested that 270 millions would die instantly and 270 millions would disappear over a period of time . The planet earth would become unliveable because of arrival of nuclear winter . The survivors would envy the dead . Thus, direct conflicts, due to WsMD overhang, have found an alternative to use non- WsMD proxies .
However, anytime a military conflict breaks out in any part of the world, an ear-splitting noise of the likely beginning of 3rd World war, is churned out from ramparts of TV Channels/ Media reports, more particularly Indian Print and Electronic media . Their self -styled defence experts, both military and non- military, forget the role of WsMD (weapons of Mass destruction) in checkmating the escalation of a military conflict .
If one studies military conflicts between nations since 1950, one would note that “restraint” has been applied option for “nuclear haves”. In fact , it must be noted that US President Harry Truman had to sack his most popular Military commander, General Douglas Mc Arthur in the Korean war for insisting upon exercising “nuclear option” across “38 Parallel” against North Korea .
In present day scenario, Wars between two military- equals, possessing WsMD, follow a path of either WOM (war by other means) or at best the use of “proxy nations” is encouraged . Take the case of Russia - Ukraine war raging since February 2021. Vladimir Putin’s threat of use of “ nukes” if USA or NATO intervening . Despite moral,financial and military support, USA and Europe cannot directly intervene .
Three and a half years of war, so far, has greatly degraded Ukraine economically and militarily . Some sources assert that Ukraine might lose the war by the end of 2024, if war does not stop. Ukraine President , Zelensky has been crying hoarse that it had run out of ammunition to continue the war. What more , having lost almost 70,000 soldiers , Ukraine was not finding more recruits to continue the war. It may be noted that Ukraine has already lost 20% of its territory to Russia . Irony is that despite serious US concerns over declining position of Ukraine, NATO / USA cannot directly intervene to retrieve the situation .
This is the contribution and power of WsMD in checkmating the escalation of military conflicts. Important lesson from Ukraine- Russian war is that modern wars in 21st Century, can neither be sustained or won by “borrowed” military-ware . After initial set-back , Russia has geared up its defence production to the level of 2nd World War Efficiency.
Self - reliance in military hardware is the key to sustain a protracted war. In September 2024, the imported Communication devices, such as 5000 pagers and walkie Talkies of Hezbollah activists in Lebanon were blasted concurrently by Israel at the click of a remote AI (Artificial Intelligence) command. It raises doubts on the use of imported weaponry and communication devices. They could well be compromised and stuffed with “AI commands”.
Coming back to discouraging impact of WsMD, one ought to know that they definitely restrict full scale wars or encourage use of proxies. In the Indian context too, Kargil-99 was a reminder that two nations with nuclear weapons tended to avoid crossing the bottom line of each other, despite unacceptable military provocation. India did not cross LC ( Line of Control) during Kargil conflict in 1999 because of Pakistan’s confirmed position that it would not hesitate to use nuclear option, in the face of huge conventional superiority of India. On the other hand Pakistan masked its Kargil misadventure as an action by so called , “ Freedom fighter of Kashmir” , while they were actually regular soldiers of NLI (Northern Light Infantry).
One must note that Pakistan boasts of FSD (Full Spectrum Deterrence), because of its ownership of TNWs (Tactical Nuclear Weapons) of Low Yield which can be employed against advancing forces without collateral damage. Yet it showed “Restraint” when IAF carried out strike against terrorist camp at Balakote, deep inside Pakistan, in February 2019. In fact reports assert that then Prime Minister of Pakistan, Imran Khan, was fully shocked, while addressing National Assembly to release Indian Pilot , wing Commander, Abhinanadan. Some reports even claimed that his legs were shaking , when he spoke. Boasting on social media / TV channels is one thing but to carry out the threat of use of nukes is another.
Take the case of current Israel - Iran conflict which began after Israel struck with a missile on Iranian consulate in Damascus (Syria) on 01 April 2024, thereby killing two Iranian Generals. A credible response was expected from Iran to retaliate the killing . On 16 April 2024 , Iran attacked Israel with drones and missiles . It was claimed that a total of 331 projectiles , all inclusive, were fired . But they all proved to be a damp squib because 99% were destroyed before they could hit their targets.
Even after recent killing of Hezbollah Chief Hassan Nasarallah on 27 September 2024, Iran retaliated with a burst of around 200 ballistic missile on three cities of Israel with minimal effect. It does not deter Israel from decimating Iran’s proxies in the form of Hezbollah , Hamas and Houthi , operating from Lebanon, Gaza and Yemen respectively. Proxies have failed because of technically advanced weaponry of Israel .
A lot of credit has been given to Israel Missile Defence systems , “Iron Dome” and “ Arrow” to have neutralised the incoming Iranian projectiles . However it is now known that Israel has developed a secret early warning system, called “ David’s Sling”. Mounted on an aircraft, it detected the launching of the Iranian drones/ missiles in real time and activated the Missile Defence System. It suggests that Israel systems were technologically far superior to Iran . What more, Iranian action was “predictable”. It had been shrieking revenge since Israeli strikes on its Syrian consulate.
This allowed Israel to be prepared for the attack and disallowed Iran to surprise it, as was done by Hamas on 07 October 2023 and almost 1250 Israelis were killed. Despite threats from Iran and Hamas, Israel has not stopped its Gaza and Lebanon operations and reportedly, in a punitive action, has killed some 40000 of Gaza and Lebanon residents.
It is well known that Iran was an ally of Russia and China, who supported it against USA . But they cannot rescue it from Israel’s wrath. At best, they can provide only material and moral support. However, the technological edge Israel has got, it was unmatchable. Israel is determined to stop Iran from building a nuclear weapon. This is the main cause of ongoing war between the two adversaries.
On April 19, 2024, Israel had carried out a retaliatory strike at Isfahan airport of Iran. It may be noted that Israel was a known but unconfirmed nuclear power, while Iran was still hoping to acquire nuclear weapons. Israel has been attacking nuclear facilities of Iran for decades to disallow it from acquiring the capability . Retaliatory strike was a cautionary step to warn Iran of more serious consequences to strike its nuclear facilities . It seems , Iran had backed down from any further direct attacks on Israel in the near future . But it used its proxies of Hamas and Hezbollah to cause attrition to Israel. This is what led Israel to eliminate Hezbollah leadership in Lebanon.
Proxies are the only alternatives to refrain from direct involvement. They are the preferred instruments of waging wars against “Militarily Equal” adversaries . One can say, while Ukraine was NATO/ USA Proxy against Russia, similarly , Pakistan was a Chinese Proxy against India. In the same vein, one ought to know that USA was hoping to use India as a proxy against China, which India has been cleverly evading it .
Proxy wars are not limited to use of neighbours of your adversary alone but also leads to use of hybrid means to engage your enemy. It involved exploitation of internal vulnerabilities of your adversary ; media misinformation; cultural manipulations, finally, trade and economic sanctions to isolate the enemy . The collapse of Soviet Union, Yugoslavia and Czechoslovakia are prime example of Proxy war.
Even lethality, accuracy and enlarged ranges of non - nuclear weapons discourage use of kinetic weapons and physical contact of soldiers. It has, thus, led to non - kinetic means, which has led wars into “ Non - Contact arena”. In short, “Brute Force Wars” has led to “ Brain Force Wars”, where annexation of territory is not the primary objective but total subjugation without collateral damage. Conflicts are so designed that there are No “ fronts” and “Rears”. The arrival of Biological and Chemical weapons, such as Corona Virus (Covid -19) further redefine the emerging shape of war within conventional weapons “frame work”.
These developments, therefore, rule out “ World War” in the classic sense of the concept. Soldiers won’t zoom across borders but missiles, drones and viruses would fly across the national borders . Nuclear weapons would remain instruments of “Deterrence” unless of course a crazy leader wants to destroy the humanity because once used by one , the escalation of a nuclear conflagration cannot be ruled out.
In conclusion, one would recount what John Hersey had said long ago, “What has kept the world safe from the bomb since 1945 has not been deterrence, in the sense of fear of specific weapons, so much as it's been memory. The memory of what happened at Hiroshima ”.
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