Background
Terrorism has assumed an entirely new dimension hitherto unseen, possibly unthinkable. HAMAS full scale vicious attack on Israel on 7th October, 2023 shocked, surprised and virtually mesmerized the entire world. ‘How could this happen’ was and still remains the most unanswered question. Terrorism, as it was known till 6th October, 2023 was related to events viz 9/11 in USA and 26/11 in India. Although terrorists and security forces remain regularly involved in shooting all over the globe but most such attacks involve few terrorists striking target of their choice, both military and civilian. No military strategist anywhere in the world would have conceived what a non state actor HAMAS has done to a nation state having a formidable military. HAMAS’s ability to sustain the war for 49 days with primitive weapon already speaks volumes of their outstanding planning and understanding the brutal effect of super saturated strike.
HAMAS Strategy
Operational Planning. In spite of HAMAS being declared a terrorist outfit, their strategic wisdom, operational planning, unbelievable secrecy and brutal concentration of weapons fired over a wide area covering nearly entire length and breadth of Israel in few minutes to launch a full scale attack on Israel, which is among top military powers in the world, is admirable.
Their choice of cheap unguided rockets having varied ranges as the main, in fact only weapon, brought Israel on its knees in the opening hours of the war. While exact specifications of warheads, launchers, all up weight etc of HAMAS rockets is not known but launching thousands of rockets within few hours and swamping Israel’s famed Iron Dome Ballistic Missile Defence System was an outstanding example of pre-emptive strike with primitive weapons without using elements of conventional military.
Logistics Execution. HAMAS leadership has demonstrated exemplary vision in planning the entire strategy. Chosen date 6 th October was also of extreme significance; 50th anniversary of Yom Kippur war. As on date no one knows the exact number of rockets manufactured by HAMAS over, perhaps, few years.
Storing rockets, distributing it to dozens, may be hundreds of separate locations along with launchers in absolute secrecy deserves unreserved acknowledgement of exceptional planning and flawless execution. Whether rockets were manufactured at a single location and distributed or is there multiple production facilities may never be known.
Were these rockets manufactured in Gaza or were the rockets imported from some other nation is also yet to be ascertained? Exact numbers of rockets launched between 7th October and 24th November (49 days) may not be known even to HAMAS. However in first 49 days thousands of rockets have already been fired. It would be a fare guess that HAMAS still has thousands of rockets in the tunnels.
Bandicoot Concept. In order to maintain utmost secrecy HAMAS must have decided on adopting the strategy of constructing an operationally viable tunnel network by following the North Vietnamese strategy as well as the famous animal Bandicoot. Also HAMAS did not use any electronic communication. Only person to person contact through a well oiled human chain could have ensured such level of unbelievable secrecy. Area of Gaza strip is around 500 sq km. If information from open sources is to be believed that HAMAS has built a network of around 500-550 km. Which implies that every sq km of Gaza has a one km long tunnel underneath. Without doubt these tunnels would be interconnected from north to south of Gaza strip. Such mammoth task might have taken years, may be a decade.
Final Outcome
Final outcome of the war is obvious. Israel will win sooner than later. Even HAMAS leadership must have concluded that before launching the first rocket. But the cost of victory for Israel will be huge. A non state actor has matched a formidable military power blow for blow. HAMAS attack has demolished the invincible Israel image permanently.
Future
Israel’s unachievable national/military aim of destroying HAMAS is indicative of its emotional bankruptcy and professional paralysis. Terrorism can only be contained; it cannot be eliminated. First phase of hostage exchange ends on 28th November, now extended to 30th November. However indications are that it is likely to be extended further. Even if HAMAS were to release all hostages, Israel is unlikely to maintain cease fire because tunnel network can only be destroyed by slow and brutal ground war, which may extend from few days/weeks or months. Israel might succeed in killing/capturing HAMAS members still hiding in tunnels but there will be many thousands in west bank or neighbouring countries. A stable Israel, as was envisioned after Camp David and Abraham Accord and improving relations with Arab world will remain a mirage.
Training/Humint. HAMAS leadership has given a lesson to militaries of the world on training thousands of personnel in absolute secrecy for execution of such mammoth strike plan and executing it successfully with flawless precision. Irreplaceable need for CONSISTENT AND CONTINUOUS HUMINT could not have been stated in a better manner. Lack of EFFECTIVE HUMINT and over reliance on ELINT was the sole reason for Israel suffering such humiliation at the hands of a non state actor.
Lessons
Unguided vs Guided Missiles/Rockets. Successful attack on Israel by using unguided rockets in large numbers has brought out the effectiveness of a supposedly primitive weapon. Guided cruise missiles/SSMs appeared in battle area in large numbers during Op Desert Storm, which commenced on 17th January, 1991. 37 nation MNF exhausted their entire stock of cruise missiles in first 42 days of war. Each cruise missiles currently possessed by militaries of the world cost millions of USD each and carries few hundred kg warhead. GPS ‘un’ reliability/wrong target coordinates have made numerous million dollar weapon as a waste material in quite a few cases. For the cost of each guided cruise missile thousands of unguided rockets with launchers can be produced. Thousands of unguided rockets will play more havoc than guided cruise missiles.
Guided cruise missiles with conventional warheads are the most expensive single use weapons. While a nation can possess and launch thousands of unguided rockets but it can only possess, may be few hundred guided SSMs. Economic considerations, ease of manufacture, storage and primitive technical knowhow required to produce thousands of cheap unguided rockets fare favourably as compared to sophisticated SSMs.
Efficacy of Ballistic Missile Defence Systems (BMDS). No known BMDS can or will be able to neutralize saturated rocket attack as demonstrated by HAMAS. It is an irony that a primitive rocket costing may be few thousand dollars can only be destroyed by a BMDS missile costing few lakh dollars. One BMDS missile can destroy only one rocket. All BMDS are one of the most expensive but extremely ineffective weapons.
Can it Happen to India? We need to consider this aspect without delay. YES IT CAN and POSSIBLY WILL. With LoC and now even LAC active round the year conventional artillery might be supplemented with HAMAS type rockets, both by China and Pakistan; Pakistan in particular. Our vital military establishments and civilian targets are right across the LoC and vulnerable to such strike. Few jihadis from Pakistan have already threatened India for similar strike.
Indian Options
Rocket Force. There has been lot of noise to create a rocket force on the same lines as Russia and China. We would be falling into a trap, if we decide to invest in guided rocket force. It is a prohibitively expensive economic option. While this issue may also be examined but in the mean time can, rather should we not adopt the brilliant HAMAS strategy, both on LoC and LAC? HAMAS is a terrorist organization but that does not mean that a professional military cannot adopt their operationally proven strategy. We can manufacture lakhs of such rockets at a fraction of the cost.
Tanks in Ladakh. To counter China in Ladakh region we have nearly decided to produce tanks, photos of prototype 37 ton tank has already appeared. When this proposal was being examined during tenure of first CDS, I spent considerable time reading Maj Gen JFC Fuller’s volumes on North African Campaign. The brilliant soldier and strategist has written a wonderful account of how, where and when armoured can and should be used. Undulating terrain and mountains are unsuitable for use of armour.
Although not in public but China is literally cursing itself for creating unusable airfields in TAR. Due to extreme environmental conditions and high altitude no aircraft, fighters and helicopters in particular, can operate from these airfields, whose elevation is in excess of 3 km. Are we trying to commit similar hara-kiri by planning to create tank formations and take them on a one way journey to Ladakh from factories? Will we be able to create logistic infra structure needed for moving and maintaining an armoured division at that altitude?
Will a combination of shoulder launched anti tank missile, air power and HAMAS STRATEGY not be able to neutralize the advancing Chinese armour? We must not forget that unguided T-10 rockets launched by IAF hunters created the famous tank graveyard at Longewala in 1971. Can we not explore the same option with ground based unguided rockets?
Conclusion
Outcome of HAMAS-Israel war is of lesser interest to me than acknowledging the outstanding HAMAS plan to use short range unguided rockets for super saturated strikes for annihilating civilian and military targets close to LoC and LAC.
It is an irony of sorts that a terrorist non state actor HAMAS has proven my theory of SUPER SATURATED STRIKE propagated more than 40 years ago while undergoing course at Defence Services Staff College, Wellington in 1981.
I failed to convince my own colleagues in uniform and it was thrown out of the window. My theory of SUPER SATURATED STRIKE was in the context of Firstly, neutralizing an aircraft carrier and Secondly, making any BMD system ineffective. Its applicability in land warfare is equally applicable as has been proven beyond any doubt by HAMAS.
I strongly recommend that we consider this cheap but effective option or waste our time on money on half baked DRDO projects for producing multi-million dollar SSMs?
Wisdom has not dawned on me after 7th October. I had already written my views on efficacy and use of these ‘single use’ multi-million dollar SSMs few years ago. Of course my views were on the paper; HAMAS has proved it in war.
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