"Should Israel insist and continue with its ‘Once for All’ philosophy? It will result in a massive holocaust in recent times. Urban warfare is fraught with the risk of enormous casualty"
"Wars are fought to achieve strategic aim/s, not for revenge. Israel would do well to adopt measures to ensure that it is not repeated in the future. Glaring failures are already starting. Rebuilding Gaza might be yet another option" - Opines Gp Capt TP Srivastava
1. Four US Presidents are headed toward the most volatile conflict zone yet of the 21st century. Joe Biden, the present POTUS, will join ‘Ford’, ‘Ike’ (in the east Mediterranean), and ‘Reagan’ (near South Korea; A nuclear Submarine is already present) to project a massive show of force supporting Israel, which is facing the most complicated and vulnerable situation, both militarily and politically. Three Carrier Battle Groups were simultaneously employed operationally only on one earlier occasion during the Cuban Missile Crisis.
2. Israel’s Wars. The present Israel war is entirely different from the 1967 and 1973 wars for two major reasons.
Earlier wars were against a group of nations. The present war is against a terrorist organization located within Israeli territory, the GAZA STRIP.
During earlier wars Israel was a united country, both politically and militarily. At the moment Israel is politically divided (read unstable) country.
3. Current Status. Israel is witnessing open defiance against present governing apparatus, Benjamin Netanyahu as PM, in particular. Although the IDF Chief has accepted that intelligence failure was the main cause of the disaster, Netanyahu has not accepted it openly. He has merely formed National Unity Government. His decision to ‘control’ the judiciary has been met with violence and open defiance indicating total lack of faith in the government. State of public distrust in Netanyahu government is indicated by comments of a prominent Israeli Commentator Nahum Barnea, who wrote “We are mourning for those who were murdered, but the loss does not end there; It is the state that we lost.”
4. Israel’s Emotional Outburst. ‘Terrorism can only be contained; it cannot be eliminated’. Israel has thus unwittingly set for itself an unachievable target by stating that ‘Once for All’ Israel wants to eliminate HAMAS. All jihadist movement including ISIS still exist in some corner with another name.
5. Role of USA. The USA has unequivocally declared its total support to Israel. USAF is already flying the latest weaponry to Israel. Two CBGs are in the east Mediterranean. One of the most significant deployments of the USAF F-15E squadron took place in the Middle East on 13th October, 2023 (the First and only Friday the 13th in 2023). F-15E is the only aircraft that can carry a 29000 lb deep penetration bomb. The US secretary of state and defense have visited/visiting Israel in the past few days. POTUS is due to arrive on 18th October. Why should POTUS visit a country under attack? On 16th October Biden while speaking to ’60 Minutes’, a media channel said “It would be a big mistake for Israel to occupy Gaza again”. Perhaps the visit of POTUS to Tel Aviv is not aimed as much to support Israel rather it is to tell Israel to ‘back off’ from the stated aim of ‘Once for All’.
6. Consequences of Gaza Occupation by Israel. Should Israel insist and continue with its ‘Once for All’ philosophy it will result in a massive holocaust in recent times. Urban warfare is fraught with the risk of enormous casualties. Additionally, Israel’s effort to normalize relations with Saudi Arab will evaporate in thin air. In any case, Saudi has been put on hold any further progress on the issue due to ongoing war. However larger and more significant issue is that Abraham Accord would be torn to shreads. Should that happen Iran would have won the war by proxy.
7. Israel’s Options. Mindset of Israel’s unity government is difficult to guess/predict but if Israel decides to continue with the war and launch ground offensive resulting in loss of lives of innocent civilians, its reputation will take a hit. Such action will also alienate the ‘friendly’ Palestinians. Stoppage of supplies, electricity etc has already invited adverse comments worldwide. Hence revenge is decidedly not an option. However should Israel announce unilateral stoppage of offensive, the only available option, it will have following advantages.
The world will appreciate the gesture.
Iran would be devastated for having failed to continue/fight a proxy war.
Project HAMAS in poor light.
Hostages might return alive.
8. Future. It is well-nigh impossible to predict the final outcome (if at all) but one thing is certain; the State of Israel will never be deemed to be as invincible as it was up to 6th October, 2023. What is even more astonishing is the announced national/military aim of Israel government; “Once and for All”. It is indicative of political and military bankruptcy on the part of Israel. Wars are fought to achieve strategic aim/s, not for revenge. Israel would do well to adopt measures to ensure that it is not repeated in the future. Glaring failures are already starting. Rebuilding Gaza might be yet another option.
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