"Watching Trump assassination attempt video clip in slow motion was revealing. The bullet, which nicked Trump’s right year would have entered his skull but for Trump’s characteristic nod to left rather than right at the precise moment. God has pre-ordained that Trump will be 47th President of USA, pollsters forecast notwithstanding."
But Trump’s second and final tenure as POTUS will be quite different from 2016-20 era. Globe has undergone a total metamorphosis during past four years. During Biden’s tenure USA is involved in various theatres of war by proxy. Trump’s unique accomplishment already is; having become the most powerful President elect of USA.
His possible/probable priorities will be as under.
1. Grooming JD Vance. After Trump’s tenure as POTUS if Vance is nominated by GOP to be its Presidential candidate for 2028 elections (7th November), he would be youngest contender for the post of POTUS ahead of JFK. His known political exposure as on date has mostly been from the galleries. Trump would have onerous responsibility to groom him to be a serious contender to become 48th POTUS on 20th January, 2029, if not earlier due to divine intervention.
2. China.
(a) Tariff War. Trump will have to adopt a totally different strategy in conducting ‘Tariff War’ with China. Trump’s ‘America First’ economic policy revolves around controlling tariffs be it China, India or any other nation. But his pre-election rhetoric of slapping 60% tariff on all Chinese exports will not stand the scrutiny. His Chief of Staff Susie might play a significant role in convincing the ‘businessman’ POTUS to mellow down.
(b) Change from Adversarial Approach. Under prevailing geo-strategic scenario Trump will have to reconsider his 2017 strategy wrt China, which was “China and Russia want to shape a world condemning US values and interests”. China has taken giant leap during Biden’s presidency. Perhaps the approach proposed by outgoing POTUS in 2015, which believed that “USA and China will benefit if they view each other as competitors rather than adversaries” would be more desirable. Confrontationist approach will be detrimental to global peace.
(c) Space. ISS, jointly manned/controlled by Russia and USA is likely to be decommissioned in 2031. Chinese space programme comprising of independent space station has made few remarkable accomplishment supported by its unmanned aircraft orbiting the earth. USA will have to either develop yet another space station with collaborative effort, may be from Russia, India or European Space Agency. Will NASA handover the responsibility to Trump favourite Elon Musk?
(d) Minimising/Reducing Chinese Influence in International Organisations. A large number of UN organizations are under Chinese influence. USA will have to find ways to assert itself for instance in WTO.
(e) Human Rights. USA will have to seriously review its utterly flawed human rights policy.
(f) Military Power. USA will have to continue the advances made and not allow China to become a global maritime power.
(g) Taiwan. Acid test of Trump’s presidency will be revoking hitherto practiced ‘ONE CHINA’ policy to protect Taiwan.
3. Russia
(a) Trump will seize the opportunity to befriend a weekend Russia due to nearly 1000 day war with Ukraine. USA will need Russia’s support to convince China to agree to enter into trilateral nuclear weapons reduction agreement. China had declined to be a part earlier unless USA and Russia reduced theirs.
(b) Putin and Trump chemistry might work.
(c) Russian support would be essential for the next level of space station.
4. NATO/Europe.
(a) Defence Expenditure. Trump will continue from where he left. He will insist on NATO members spending at least 2% of their GDP on defence. As per available data only eight of 32 members have met the requirement. Incidentally most of these countries are in Eastern Europe, which face imminent threat from Russia.
(b) Ukraine in NATO. He is likely to postpone, if not reject Ukraine’s desire.
(c) Re-entry of Russia as G-7 Member. After convincing (read coercing) Russia and Ukraine to stop the war on ‘as is where is basis’, Trump will once again try to gain Russia’s entry for long term USA-Russia cooperation in the field of space exploration and sustaining ISS till 2031.
5. Iran
(a) Trump has been vocal supporter of Israel’s option to strike Iran’s nuclear facility.
(b) Probability of strike is high before Trump takes office on 20th January, 2025.
(c) Only option with Iran will be to accept ‘no holds barred’ inspection of its nuclear facilities by IAEA inspectors sooner than later.
6. Russia-Ukraine War
(a) Trump’s acid test of diplomacy and power would be his ability to convince (read coerce) Russia and Ukraine to cease fire almost immediately.
(b) If that is not possible, Trump will almost certainly reduce supply of weapons to Ukraine. He might even convince Biden to do the same, which will be contrary to NATO decision.
(c) Russia will be seeking guarantee that Ukraine will not be a contender to become 33rd member of NATO to stop the ongoing offensive.
7. Israel
(a) Trump will ensure that aid to Israel is doubled/tripled or quadrupled sooner than later.
(b) Trump will be aiming to see end of ‘TRIPLE H’ by Israel in the same way as he did to ISIS.
(c) Freedom to Israel to engage Iran’s nuclear facilities if Iran fails to allow immediate inspection by IAEA inspectors.
8. India
(a) Trump’s immediate task will be to seek support from PM Modi to end Russia-Ukraine war.
(b) There is every likelihood for enhanced Indo-US cooperation in field of weapons acquisition from US manufacturers.
(c) In order to contain China, establishing a QUAD base in A&N islands cannot be ruled out.
(d) Will support India’s fight against Pak aided terrorism.
(e) Cooperation in space will be taken to next level.
Comments