By Neil John
There is a huge change happening in Pakistan. After the recent happenings when civilian mobs attacked army Cantonments including a Corps commanders residence, there is an underlying fear. You can stop the enemy, but can you stop your own people? Look at Manipur, we are facing own mobs everyday. Security columns are at times helpless, cause there is no enemy to fight, just swarms of people, antagonised by happenings.
While the army runs Pakistan as a nation. They know that economics of growth and development are faltering. Most army officers in Pakistan are already investing in properties abroad. That’s a sign that internally everyone knows that it’s no More the cauldron of prosperity for the men in uniform. Large farm Lands,beautiful houses, latest cars and a princely lifestyle are being questioned everyday on Pakistani social media.
Even Musharraf chose London. Things are not hunky dory for the Pak army. Their equipment is getting older, the munitions are missing and the all weather friend China is disillusioned by the attacks on its citizens on Pakistani soil. Countries like the US are not bailing them out, cause of Pakistan’s own internal conflict. Even the three arms that create the Pakistani military don’t think alike. More so ever, everyone is worried about the radicalisation of the military and the safety of nuclear weapons.
Over and above internal strife, in Balochistan, Sindh, POK, Gilgit Baltistan and even as close home as Lahore are signs that anarchy just needs a trigger. Pakistan is bankrupt, Islamic countries like Saudi and Qatar will surely render help. But nothing comes free, all is at a cost. They also know that they can’t be investing into a failing business.
The Indian analogy that China is a greater enemy and we need to have capability to fight them or deter them is skewed by itself when it is in an isolated format. The debate that we will by growth of capability against China, manifest that imbibed strength towards Pakistan, in times of war is another jugad.
The question we need to answer is would we go for an all-out war with China? Do we have the capability or the will? Are we that stupid to antagonise them above their thresholds? What would happen to a progressive India and it’s march towards economic growth in a war with China? Why do we even think about a war with China? Are China’s predator land grabbing policies a great threat to a nation like India. Or is it just IW and a war of perception management? Is physical contact above sub tactical or tactical levels in today’s geo political environment with China a possibility? What’s China more worried about? US and its influence in Taiwan or borders with India? Is india even a geo strategic threat?
The Chinese front has been stabilised more as an advantage to the Chinese due to their superior infrastructure which further strengthens their forward posture. In own case, adhocism in terms of summer and winter posture by varied formations still continues.
With Pakistan we need to be now doubly prepared. A failing nation will want credence and relevance. For its population to feel nationalism, what better than playing the Kashmir bogie again and a skirmish with India with body bags on both sides is a sure game changer and gives the Pakistani army another 20 years of existence. Cause in war there are no winners or losers, it’s all about managing perceptions and selling the victory in multiple forms to those that need to see it manifest. As it is our news channels and social media platforms always end up selling half baked truths. With media as a weapon we will both sell our victories.
There is no greater threat to a nation than leaders at all levels, wanting progressive military strength and using the reasons of threat and imminent war as the biggest tool. Capability building in a developing nation will only happen when there is a threat. With two nuclear neighbours, we have sold the concept of threat of war. Single front, Two fronts, two and a half fronts, now war in the IOR. But is our capability building progressive or fast paced enough to mitigate the threat by a nation in the North, who plans the world’s greatest military by 2049.
What we as a military need to do against both adversaries is build the capabilities of fighting a dirty war. With dirty war it doesn’t mean a nuclear war. We need to be prepared to take battle and the perception of it into the enemies houses. Where the human kind and the futility of its misadventure is a target. To strike him with a reality that he is being misled due to faulty political and national agendas and by a bunch of ambitious mediocre leadership trying to make their mark in history and also take home the big bucks.
Showcase capabilities that are people and economic dangers. Shutting off his electricity, turning off his water, chaos in his public transport systems and air travel, hitting at the productivity of his industry, arming his weapon systems remotely and hacking into his power centres. Yes the GREY ZONE. An invisible enemy is the most dangerous, the effect felt by the masses that vote governments to power. When you remove privileges and what small luxuries that you take for granted and can’t live without, you create a voice, this voice is of the common man, this common man is the anchor of a nations will. Wars therefore can be won without even crossing the borders, without firing of a single bullet, without physical contacts, without the loud noises in all kinds of forum that go with it. China is partially doing this to us right now. His forward posturing, the presidents non attendance of the G-20. Undermining India as a nation in all global events. Balancing out India’s overture’s towards the South East Asian countries and the African continent. Chinese goods freely sold even after the Indian awareness campaign in every shop in Delhi’s bazaars be it Chandni Chowk, Karol Bagh or the uppity Khan Market. Satellite capability to jam our own and maybe project his own perceptions. The map and the territory propaganda. All working towards keeping the Indian polity and military busy. We as Indians realise his game plan, we need to therefore enhance our proactive measures and hit him at his vulnerabilities. The military is his strength, we can’t pitch strength against strength. We need to address the weak spots. South China Sea, the US at his door step bogie, the threat in his northern borders, his clamping on Islam in Xinjiang, his ancient communist ideology, his economic stability at threat and his predator like policies.
With the Pakistanis we need to be doubly sure that we prevent all types of misadventure. Their reliance on terrorism and hitting our weak spots is already known. We need to have a strong centrally poised calibrated force. Something like a Sabre corps. Which is provided with the latest in technology and arsenal. The corps should be trained to operate in the western borders wherever and whenever and however needed. Like our strategic forces, with least amount of public exposure. Create that image of an invisible powerful entity that can hit at the heart of a nations might. The Paki’s are wary about fighting deep. We need to have that capability to take them on, in all domains of land, sea and air and from any direction of their borders. Build capability to take the war into their bellies of Peshawar, Rawalpindi, Lahore etc (contact & non contact). The Paki’s only understand strength. We need to defy their warped logic with display of aggressive political will and military intent. With the Paki’s it has to be a mix of kinetic and non kinetic retribution. Instilling fear and awe.
The race for weaponisation, infrastructure development and diplomatic efforts in a democracy sadly changes with changes in government. A national security apparatus after all is as good as its political will.
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