The Agnipath Scheme: Evaluating Its Impact and Future Prospects

By Brigadier Sarvesh Dutt Dangwal

Since its introduction in June 2022, the Agnipath Scheme has sparked extensive discussion across mainstream TV news channels, alternative media, YouTube, podcasts, and print media platforms. The scheme continues to be a hot topic, fueled by supporters, critics, and those who remain uncertain about its merits, particularly in light of the claims made by the government and military. While much has been debated about the pros and cons of this transformative human resource initiative by the Modi 2.0 government, it is essential to examine its broader implications and whether it truly benefits the military and the nation's youth.

Embracing Change: A Necessity for Progress

Change is inevitable and essential for progress. We must have the wisdom and courage to abandon some of our most cherished practices and tools in favor of progressive, modern, and necessary advancements. Our vision should guide our thinking, not the constraints of our past. Such an environment, driven by human endeavor, can lead to a revolution in military affairs (RMA). An RMA represents a significant change in the nature of warfare, brought about by innovative applications of new technology combined with dramatic changes in military doctrines, operational and organizational concepts, fundamentally altering the character and conduct of war. This argument has been effectively used to advocate for the Agnipath Scheme.

Criticism of the Agnipath Scheme

Critics of the Agnipath Scheme argue that it does not resonate with India's youth, who are the country's much-hyped demographic dividend. They raise concerns about the inadequate training time to transform recruits into effective soldiers, the erosion of unit cohesion due to instilled competition among colleagues at the expense of cooperation, the disintegration of teamwork and camaraderie in crew-served weapon systems, and the uncertainty about the future, which adversely impacts performance and the spirit of a soldier during life-threatening moments in service.

Both these arguments hold weight from a military perspective. However, the recent elections in June 2024 highlighted the scheme's unpopularity among the recruitable male population, who view it as a "use and throw" policy. This sentiment was effectively exploited for electoral purposes by the INDI Alliance. From a socialist viewpoint, it is imperative that the government provides formal jobs for its youth, both male and female. This has been a cornerstone of India's socio-economic policies since becoming a Republic in 1950.

India's Unique Security Needs

India's size, population, diversity, geographical features, and challenging security environment demand careful consideration before altering systems that have served its security needs. The country has more than 15,000 km of land borders, 7,500 km of coastline, and 60,000,00 sq km of airspace to defend, alongside nine neighboring countries, two of which are extremely hostile. Any changes to the military's structure and recruitment must be deliberate and well-thought-out.

Questioning the Youthful Profile Argument

The argument that the Agnipath Scheme will make the military more youthful is only partially true. While the chronological age of soldiers will decrease from 32 to 26, there is no scientific evidence to support the claim that this will result in better physical performance. Research published in the Lancet Journal suggests that biological age, rather than chronological age, is more significant in determining physical and sports performance. Additionally, a study conducted by the Indian Army between 1986 and 1990 found no statistically significant drop in performance parameters between soldiers aged 20 to 34.

Overlooked Institutional Memory

The Indian Army's disregard for institutional memory is evident in its neglect of the findings of the 1986-1990 Study Group Report on Physical Training Regimen and Evaluation Tests for the Army. This study tested approximately 5,000 soldiers and recruits across different age categories and found no significant deterioration in performance parameters between ages 20 and 34. Therefore, the argument that a youthful profile will improve physical performance is not substantiated by empirical evidence.

The Need for Objective Evaluation

Both supporters and critics of the Agnipath Scheme often rely on subjective appraisals rather than objective assessments. We are only two years into the scheme, and it will take another two years before we can fully evaluate its impact when the first batch of Agniveers exits the programme. Additionally, the operational performance of Agniveers in hostile situations needs to be closely monitored and analyzed to draw any meaningful conclusions.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the Agnipath Scheme, while a bold initiative, requires careful scrutiny and objective evaluation. The argument that it will create a more youthful and physically capable military is not supported by scientific evidence or historical data. Moreover, the scheme's impact on unit cohesion, teamwork, and the future prospects of recruits must be thoroughly assessed. The government and military must prioritize long-term security needs and socio-economic policies that provide stable employment for the nation's youth. Only through a balanced and evidence-based approach can we determine the true merit of the Agnipath Scheme and ensure it aligns with India's broader national interests.