Editor's Note
This is a timely piece by Col NN Bhatia . It weighs the pros and cons for liberating POK and also draws comparisons with other countries striving for reunification by regaining those territories that once belonged to them , originally or historically . Notwithstanding the intended electoral gains for BJP for publicizing the liberation of POK, this subject could surely be serious food for thought for visionary and strategically inclined military minds!
The nation must evaluate 'political rhetoric' vs serious military planning, conduct of operations in hostile terrain and environment with logistics nightmare so well brought out by the author.
Entire Indian state Jammu & Kashmir (J&K) showing areas of illegally Pakistan occupied Kashmir (POK) & Chinese occupied Aksai Chin. This map is symbolic.
”PoK will be part of India in 6 months of PM Modi’s 3rd term” - Yogi Adityanath
Times of India- 19 May 2024
Not going chronologically, we all Indians and international comity of nations know and acknowledge Jammu & Kashmir (J&K) state acceded to India on 26 Oct 1947 and POK which is 40% of the entire Indian state of J&K, is illegally occupied by Pakistan who gifted out its strategically important 10 % area of Aksai Chin consisting of Hunza- Gilgit, Shaksgam Valley and Raksam and Baltistan region in the North also called as the Trans-Karakoram Tract, to China in 1963 while the rest 60% is held by India. The area of POK has spread in the area of 2.22 lakh sq km while the rest 60% is held by India and both POK and Aksai Chin are illegally occupied Indian territories by Pakistan and China ever since. Incidentally, the entire areas of the Israel and Palestine are 1/10th in size of Indian state of J&K while their population nearly matches evenly. Abrogating article 370 and division of state in two union territories of Ladakh and J&K have altogether upset both Pakistan, China and dwindling pro-Pakistani elements altogether, threatening peace and development in the region where the standard of living, economic development health, education, communication and infrastructure is far ahead of the feudal centrally administered POK.
During general election’s heat and time, the statement of Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Aditya Nath stating PM Modi will get POK liberated in 6 months’ time, sounds very patriotic and as wish and desire of every Indian, may be politically worth longest and loudest clapping, cheering and sloganeering but militarily it reflects total lack of strategic immaturity of our top political leadership. The Prime Minister, the External Affairs and the Defence Ministers have often reiterated liberation of POK as part of the patriotic fervor and political jingoism. The Israel- Palestine War is running into 8th month and with all its wealth and weaponry, professional military leadership, pro-active diplomacy, the US & European Union (EU) and NATO support, there have been massive casualties in men, materials and soldiers and capturing Gaza strip still remains as a wild Israeli pipe dream.
The Palestinian government has acknowledged killings of primarily civilians in Gaza more than 35,000 people while Israel has stated Hamas has killed more than 1,200 Israelis, mostly civilians, and 253 Israeli civilians in Gaza have been made prisoners. Russia's all out invasion of Ukraine, in Feb 2022, has not achieved decisive results against militarily and financially weaker Ukraine against the Russians frontline push strains. Both countries have lost over 31,000 troops respectively besides, losing scores of tanks, aircraft and properties and infrastructure running in billions of dollars on both sides. The environment and eco-systems have been badly damaged too. Both these wars have adversely affected with polarisation of western countries bloc towards Israel and emerging world super power China towards Russian alliance. Comparatively, such enormous losses in men and materials have not been suffered by India in all its wars with Pakistan and China since 1947.
In the present fast changing times and monetary and geo-strategic scenario, India as presently is not capable of fighting wars against two fronts i.e. Pakistan and China, notwithstanding forgetting the other half front needing security forces money, men and materials to fight insurgencies in the Northeast and Naxalites, the urban insurgencies and other anti-national elements (ANEs) under strong governmental leadership at the Centre and the numerous states; while many states not seeing eye to eye with the Central government even on petty issues. We must realise that over the last 50 years tactics, local, regional aspirations and international strategic imperatives have changed drastically. Liberation of Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (POK) cannot, in these trying times, be a cake walk like liberating Goa in 1961 or creation of Bangladesh in 1971 wars respectively. Even a small Hindu neighbouring country like Nepal is getting unfriendly as its new currency note features Indian areas of Lipulekh, Limpiyadhura and Kalapani in Uttrakhand and Diplomatic ties between India, Nepal are at their lowest since 2020. About Maldives, less said the better.
We have not been able to resolve our internal security issues in Manipur and other Northeastern states including large scale infiltration from Bangladesh and Myanmar, Pak supported Khalsitani militants amicably, besides the major national security concerns of the border dispute with China, Pakistan and new entrant Nepal and infiltration, ambushing and raids by Pakistani security forces and terrorists supported by them. But our political leadership boasts of liberating POK in the next 6 months, if Modi takes over the new central government after the elections ending on 4 Jun 2024. I wonder if the political masters have taken CDS into confidence and discussed such plans with three services chiefs.
Have we forgotten when Gen (later FM) Sam Bahadur strongly refuted then PM Indira Gandhi in liberating Bangladesh during summer as Mansoon would approach and our troops and vehicles would get bogged down making operational and logistics movement a nightmare and suggested conduct of operations in Dec 71 as the Himalayan passes would be frozen making any Chinese support to Pakistan difficult? Needless to say, our military strength is far less than the combined strength of two bosom friends Pakistan and China’s combined military strength. Translating political or national aim into a military aim requires immense planning, moblisation of troops and logistics, special equipment, training and acclimatization and creation of pro-active international and diplomatic environment.
If things were that easy, China would have liberated Republic of China (ROC) /Taiwan long time back with which it has deep emotional appeal. Let this promise also not end up unfulfilled like other 'JUMLAS' like depositing Rs 15 lakhs in the accounts of every family below the poverty line or a house or MSP to the farmers as promised in the earlier two general elections. Yes, proper psychology war themes need to be played up to the minds of POK forcing them to revolt and join main stream of J&K that has progressed immensely vis-a vis their downright poverty, giving them support in men and materials emotionally to revolt against their illegal Pakistani occupation, something akin to re-unification of East Germany with West Germany and making of one strong reckoned Germany in Europe! Support of the pro-J&K and India elements in POK like author and human rights activist Amjad Ayub Mirza, hailing from Mirpur (PoK) who openly supports liberation of POK by Modi government will be of tremendous boost along with limited decisive, overt and covert, discreet under-cover operations by our security forces, R&AW and Intelligence Bureau etc. We all, who took part in Bangladesh liberation war nostalgically remember how well indigenous Mukti Bahini supported Indian armed forces in liberating Bangladesh. War should be the last resort as it brings death and destruction and economic and environmental degradation but we must be very aggressive in diplomacy, material, financial and emotional support to win over minds and emotions of the POK’s disgruntled population to revolt and join main stream of progress, peace and prosperity of the J&K state of India.
Last Word
The local POK population is ethnically disgusted by the rule of the Punjabi dominated Pak Army, bureaucracy, and entire corrupt system. Inflation, lack of development, health and educational facilities, unemployment and poor governance are visible all around. Since LoC is porous and many cross-over meeting relatives across, they are visibly and emotionally shocked and surprised seeing enormous progress made in J&K demanding merger with the mainstream brutally suppressed by Pakistani armed forces. We need to support their movement with discreet physical and emotional support for merger and joining the mainstream of J&K that will act as catalyst for Aksai Chin to follow on.
Acknowledgements
1. TOI dated 19 May 2024
2. My earlier published article-‘Will it be a war at two and a half front or an all-out war?’
Balkanization of Pak is the best case scenario for India, denies the legitimacy to two nation theory, doesn't antagonize the Chinese. Paki Punjab feels the heat. India is not burdened by a demography capable of sinister turmoil later.
I partially agree with Capt S B Tyagi. Yes author's political leaning is quite obvious as he has brought out everything that what could go wrong and is wrong in India.
I feel that merging of POK with mainland Kashmir may have initial administrative, logistics issue... but in the long run they will settle down and terrorism may die down sooner than later... leaving our forces to concentrate on other important issues. Further economic development of region with scope for exploitation of natural resources will further strengthen India's finances.
Dear sir,
Your political biases not withstanding, this wtiteup sumsup that the idea of taking over POK is not well founded and I fully agree with you.
Your political bias is reflected when you mention about jumala of Modi and do called promise of giving 15 lakhs . For the veteran like you who writes prolifically and who is well read and educated with intelligence background, this is grossly wrong reference and I also as many others request would request you to prove the so called 'promise' which was never made by him.
Another point which might we considered here is that by re-occupying POK, Bharat will be taking a great risk of making those people our citizen who are…