By Gp Capt TP Srivastava (Retd)
"Ongoing disaster unfolding in Israel is perhaps a self-inflicted injury by Israel. My views with lessons for India posted below. I remain an admirer of Israel but arrogance and overconfidence results in catastrophe, always and every time " - opines Gp Capt TP Srivastava
Background
As an observer of global and national events, I have monitored general elections in Israel for past five years and the outcome.
Israelis have proven beyond doubt that Israel is an unstable democracy. Its public has failed to elect a suitable majority government. However after every election, which failed to elect a majority government, Israeli media has gone to town admiring Israeli citizens for continuing to elect a ‘minority’ government. Coalition governments do not perform, rather cannot perform due to internal strife within the governing apparatus.
Israel has suffered the trauma of five general elections to Knesset (Parliament) during the period 2018-22. Every election threw up hung Knesset. Even the current Netanyahu government is a coalition government. Present disaster is a direct fall out of Israelis failure to elect a stable government.
Political Instability and Governance
Break up of USSR is finest example of what political instability/lack of governance can do to a nation. Instability leads to governance deficit, an ideal recipe for disaster. It lost three Presidents in three years: Brezhnev (1982), Andropov (1984) and Chernenko (1985). USSR broke up in 1989. Rest is history.
Likewise Israelis failed themselves by not electing a majority government. A country, which is surrounded by enemies cannot survive if internal strife is causing disturbance within. Netanyahu’s decision to bulldoze his judicial reforms, which has been openly opposed not only by ordinary citizens but also by military personnel has caused nation wide internal disturbance, an ideal situation for adversaries to take advantage of. I am not getting involved in merits/demerits of the reform.
Internal strife in any nation leads to instability, which results in dilution of attention towards national issues, security in particular. That is exactly what has happened in Israel. In addition to poor governance, Israel has suffered this fate, possibly due to arrogance/over-confidence about its capability. Ignoring the capability development of adversary is self inflicted injury.
Failure Of Intelligence
MOSSAD is a household name internationally whenever one talks about intelligence agency and its effectiveness. One of the finest achievement of MOSSAD is killing all but one terrorists, which carried out attack and killed Israeli sportspersons. MOSSAD hunted them over the years in various locations globally. But one cannot go to sleep over its past accomplishments, int agency in particular.
MOSSAD’s claim of developing exceptional HUMINT capability has fallen flat on its face. It has been a spectacular failure. HAMAS operatives are at an arm length just beyond the metal fence erected to demarcate GAZA strip. Yet Israel failed to monitor huge logistic activity that ought to have been involved in planning such an outstanding military operation executed by HAMAS.
Israel government and military failed to appreciate the significance of 50th anniversary of YOM KIPPUR war, specially with ongoing strife with Palestinians after Al Aqsa mosque fiasco in April, 2023.
Yet another monumental failure can be attributed to the world acclaimed FIVE EYES global intelligence agency ‘led/headed’ by USA. It claims to have recorded/monitored conversations regarding killing of Canadian terrorist but failed to monitor such an elaborate HAMAS strike plan on Israel, which may have been under planning for few months.
It brings into focus a stark reality; electronic snooping is not a substitute for HUMINT. It is at best complimentary to HUMINT. Strategists worldwide have failed to realize a fundamental difference between HUMINT and Electronic Snooping; HUMINT has a direct connection with ‘brain’ of a terrorist/extremist. Electronic snooping can only pick up conversation, photos etc. Thought process of extremists cannot be monitored electronically. Recorded conversations might be deliberately aimed to mislead the monitoring agency.
Poor Assessment of Adversary Capability
The best and most brilliant military brain could not have conceived what HAMAS did by firing few thousand rockets of varying ranges hitting Tel Aviv in the north and entire eastern border of Israel in less than 20 minutes. No adjective is good enough to define what HAMAS achieved in the face of an extremely adverse ground environment.
Chanakyan precept of ‘never under estimate your adversary’ could not have been more apt to define israel’s failure.
Over-Dependence On Anti-Missile Defence
Much touted IRON DOME anti-missile system is not capable of handling super-saturated missile/rocket multi-radial/single radial attacks. Such systems are capable of intercepting, may be few dozen rockets/missiles, not a swarm of thousands rockets/missiles.
Territorial Disputes Vis-À-Vis Religious Differences
Countries/communities were/are at war due to territorial disputes globally. There is not a single country in the world, which does not have territorial dispute with its neighbours. In few cases the dispute does not lead to war but in quite a few cases it results in repeated conflict situation and/or existence of permanent volatile borders.
Likewise religious differences also lead to divisions within the same country leading to disturbances. Magnitude of such disturbance is dependent on quality and effectiveness of control and governance by local/provincial authorities.
Israel is afflicted by both. It is a country which has experienced perpetual war conditions ever since it came into existence. Situation is unlikely to change for the better in foreseeable future. Hence any degree of neglect of either issue will lead to chaos as has happened.
India, too, is afflicted with both. Territorial disputes with China and Pakistan has already resulted in four full scale wars and continued volatility on ‘so called’ international borders having different names. Religious fundamentalism has been responsible for terrorism. Regular attacks by extremists/terrorists has been an unpleasant truth in recent times.
Lessons For India
In a democracy political instability invariably leads to dilution in governance. A review of democracies around the globe clearly highlights that democracies governed by single party majority with strong opposition are performing better than democracies governed by multi-party coalition as has happened in Israel over the years.
India has been fortunate to have been governed by single party majority government for most of 76 years of our existence, hence the stability. However that should not make us complacent. Terms Religious Fundamentalism/extremism/terrorism are synonymous. Few important lessons have already emerged.
Stop living in fool’s paradise believing that it cannot happen to us. It can. A fundamentalist in Pakistan has already threatened. · Improve HUMINT.
Use electronic surveillance/drones as complimentary.
HAMAS model of strike by Pakistan must be considered a possibility.
Instantaneous decision to use air power against probable terrorists hideout/shelters and not wait for weeks before ordering surgical strike will convey profound message to ‘would be’ terrorists.
Israel has failed itself. Let us learn from the errors committed by Israelis and not replicate the error.
Responses From Veterans: "Eternal vigilance is the Price of Liberty". Never to be forgotten. - Gen Satish Nambiar
"A quick and accurate assessment of the evolving situation. While the initial attack and the retaliation that will follow are products of military operations, the biggest question, clearly brought out, is the Huge Intelligence failure! Events of the next few days are going to provide many lessons. “- Air Mshl Sumit Mukerji
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