Introduction
With evolving situation days of dialogues and seminars are over. Time is ripe to act in order to handle the changed national security matrix.
Or we shall continue to drift in the ocean of indecision as we have been for nearly five decades.
USA has decided to review its ALERT policy of manned nuclear bombers after 33 years. Does it convey anything to our dormant decision makers?
Background
Cold War was at its peak. Gary Powers, USAF U-2 pilot was in custody of then USSR after his U-2 was shot down on 1st May, 1960 about the same time when May Day parade in Moscow’s Red Square was unfolding. JFK presidency was one of the most testing time for entire world. Bay of Pigs crisis in 1963 brought the world on the precipice of a nuclear holocaust.
While JFK was deliberating the available options with his advisors, nearly unanimous advice to JFK was to exercise nuclear option. JFK declined and resolved the crisis through dialogue with Nikita Khrushchev. USSR pulled out its nuclear missiles from Cuba and USA pulled out from Turkey. World started breathing again.
But the nuclear proliferation reappeared in 1964 when China exploded its first nuclear device. World has never been the same again notwithstanding various treaties viz NPT, CTBT, SALT, START etc. From three nuclear nations in 1964, world has nearly a dozen recognized and so called ‘unrecognised’ nuclear powers.
Devastation caused by two nuclear devices in Japan ‘forced’ super powers to start advocating NO FIRST USE POLICY (NFU) of nukes, while continuing to produce megaton nukes and developing ICBMs of over 10,000 km range.
NFU; A Phrase with Ulterior Motive
The phrase NFU clearly indicates that option of use of nukes was open after having absorbed the pre-emptive strike. Hence global outpouring by leaders of all nations that nukes must not be used is a hoax. The campaign that started after Hiroshima and Nagasaki were destroyed was to BAN USE OF NUKES. But the super powers adopted a Hippocratic approach and have been the catalyst for proliferation of nukes. While they continued to amass thousands of nuclear warheads, hundreds of delivery systems and called it TRIAD, which comprised of Manned Bombers, Surface Based Ballistic Missiles and Submarine Launched Ballistic Missiles.
Revival of Cold War Nuclear Posture
Nuclear capable and fully armed nuclear bombers were on 24 hour alert in USA. POTUS George Bush issued a presidential decree on 27th September, 1991, which discontinued Manned Nuclear Bomber Alert, which had continued for 12,414 days (nearly 34 years) without a break. During a recently held seminar at USAF Strategic Command, it has been proposed to reconsider commencing 24 hour alert. Evolving global instability resulting in formation of China-Russia-North Korea axis has forced USA to reconsider its rapid response capability (RRC), which would enable it for immediate limited nuclear strike in future.
USAF nuclear capable bomber fleet has shrunk. Presently USAF has only 46 Nuclear Capable B-52s and 19 B-2s. In the present ‘non-alert’ status USAF bombers will require few days, may be longer to reach 24 hour alert status. Two remaining part of TRIAD can be brought to operational readiness within hours.
USA is reviewing its decision to remove manned bombers from 24 hour alert.
Prevailing Situation in Indian Sub Continent
India’s major adversaries China, Pakistan are nuclear weapon states having a formidable and proven launch vehicles; The Missiles. While Pakistan has no nuclear bomber but has nuclear capable fighters but China has dedicated nuclear bombers as well. However it is extremely unlikely that China will use manned bombers. Medium and long range ballistic missiles would be the most favoured option.
China, Pakistan and Russia have clearly and unequivocally declared that they will exercise ‘FIRST USE OF NUKES’ option under certain circumstances. For China and Pakistan, India is the target. Yet our Chief of Defence Staff and premier think tank viz Centre for Air Power Studies, IDSA, USI and many others continue to ‘sing’ the outdated NFU policy.
China’s advances in the field of nuclear weapons development and deployment is astonishing during the past decade. China is headed to possess nearly 1000 warheads before end of this decade. Construction of hundreds of silos and acquisition of new nuclear submarines are being undertaken on priority. It might be construed that these developments are aimed to counter USA but does it prevent China from looking southward?
Instability in Bangladesh would almost certainly result in enhancement of Chinese investments followed by military presence. Chinese military presence in Bangladesh will change the security matrix for India adversely. It can be countered by muscle flexing by India.
Are our decision makers blind to these developments taking place with amazing regularity and speed? Without going into the details of how nuclear tipped missile is launched and how much time it takes to launch from the ‘Go-ahead’. Suffice to say that it does not happen in hours.
Since we have been aping the west while formulating our defence policies (offensive/pre-emptive), why don’t we continue to do same in case of use of nukes? Two P-5 nations (China, Russia) have unequivocally announced their intent of ‘FIRST USE’. Pakistan is even more candid and vocal when its authorities clearly state that their nuclear weapons programme is aimed at India and it will have no hesitation in using nukes against India, population centres included. USA is reviewing its alert status of manned nuclear bombers but we are stuck with our tail between the legs.
When will we wake up and review our utterly flawed NFU policy?
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