"Trump's executive order dated 27th January, 2025 (mere 7 days after becoming President) dealing with quantum enhancement in US nuclear capabilities has taken the world by surprise. How China and Russia will react/respond; time will tell.
But for now nuclear instability will go northwards."
-Gp Capt TP Srivastava
Background
Placed below are reports/claims by official media of these nations about changes being executed towards making nuclear deterrence more potent than existing level. Trump’s most recent announcement about upgrading US, ICBM capability and establishing a brand new anti ballistic missile system called IRON DOME (not to be mixed up with Israeli Iron Dome system) has thrown existing global nuclear stability to the winds. Russian nuclear doctrine of cold war era has been replaced by Putin’s doctrine, 2020. Deaf, blind and mute decision makers/advisors do not even take into cognizance the utterances of China and Pakistan about use of nukes against India. But we Indians like an OSTRICH with beak firmly embedded in sand, eyes and ears shut still want to continue with operationally defunct and unviable precept of NO FIRST USE.
Excerpts from authentic and verifiable sources stating the massive changes being brought in by China, Russia and USA are pasted below for reference.
China
China has been rapidly developing its Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) capabilities, most notably by constructing hundreds of new silos for solid-fueled ICBMs across multiple missile fields, significantly expanding its nuclear arsenal, and fielding advanced missiles like the Dongfeng-41 (DF-41) which has a range capable of reaching the United States mainland; this rapid development is considered a major concern by international observers due to its potential to significantly alter the global strategic balance.
· Large-scale silo construction:
China is building a vast number of new silos for ICBMs, indicating a significant expansion of its nuclear force.
· DF-41 missile:
Considered China's most advanced ICBM, the DF-41 has a long range and is believed to be capable of carrying multiple warheads (MIRV technology).
· Modernization of existing systems:
Besides new ICBMs, China is also upgrading its older ICBM systems.
· Increased concerns:
This rapid development has raised concerns among international powers due to the potential for increased deterrence and instability.
Russia
26th September, 2024 statement issued by Kremlin reads “Russia will use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear states under certain conditions. The primary condition for such option will be dictated by the military threats posed to Russia by non-nuclear weapon state supported by nuclear weapon states towards the war effort of Russia’s adversary” or words to that effect.
Russia’s nuclear arsenal comprises mostly of MIRV capable Ballistic Missiles of short, medium and long range and is supported by Nuclear Bombers and Submarines. NATO led by USA continues to pump in weapons in Ukraine; situation has changed after Trump has become POTUS. Russia has warned NATO nations that in the event of Ukraine being provided with long range weapons, Russia will retaliate against the nation indulging in such practice.
USA
Nuclear capable and fully armed nuclear bombers were on 24 hour alert in USA. POTUS George Bush issued a presidential decree on 27th September, 1991, which discontinued Manned Nuclear Bomber Alert, which had continued for 12,414 days (nearly 34 years) without a break. During a recently held seminar at USAF Strategic Command, it has been proposed to reconsider commencing 24 hour alert. Evolving global instability resulting in formation of China-Russia-North Korea axis has forced USA to reconsider its rapid response capability (RRC), which would enable it for immediate limited nuclear strike in future.
USAF nuclear capable bomber fleet has shrunk. Presently USAF has only 46 Nuclear Capable B-52s and 19 B-2s. In the present ‘non-alert’ status USAF bombers will require few days, may be longer to reach 24 hour alert status. Two remaining part of TRIAD can be brought to operational readiness within hours.
Trump’s recent directive should not be viewed in isolation. USA has been planning to find an excuse to enhance its nuclear arsenal. For instance USA abandoned Anti Ballistic Missile treaty in 2002 followed by unilateral walk out from INF treaty in 2019.
USA (read Trump) believes that USA is the only super power, hence a unipolar world order will be controlled by USA. ‘Neutrality’ is a dirty word in US diplomatic equation with other nations. But it is not a new or recent phenomenon. During peak of Cold War USA clearly enunciated that “if you are not with us, you are against us”. This approach in prevailing global scenario will almost certainly lead to fissures in USA and European nations sooner than later.
Current Status of Nuclear Treaties
As on date most of nuclear weapons treaties have been buried into sand. In any case all these treaties were between USA and USSR (now Russia). China was not even consulted. But that was the situation in cold war era. China of 2025 is an entirely different entity, both economically as well as military power. China has made unbelievable progress in space. Although China is a signatory to NPT but has never indulged in signing bilateral or trilateral treaty alongwith USA and Russia.
Technically ‘alive’ new START treaty, which is scheduled to expire in February, 2026, is no longer valid as Russia has walked out (but no formal withdrawal) unilaterally. This treaty desired that both USA and Russia limit their arsenals to 1550 warheads, 700 deployed delivery vehicles and 800 deployed/undeployed launch platforms viz ICBMs and other components of TRIAD.
Trump’s Vision of Future US Nuclear Posture
During his election campaign Trump never mentioned about altering nuclear deterrence policy of USA. But within 30 days of his presidency Trump made a stunning decision regarding nuclear posturing. On 27th January, 2025 Trump signed an executive order explicitly dealing with US options in future. Two most important issues are;
· Upgradation of Minuteman III missile and replace it with Sentinel.
· Develop and establish an effective ABM system, which has been dubbed as ‘IRON DOME FOR AMERICA’. Trump has directed that he wants the comprehensive proposal within 120 days dealing with deploying IRON DOME.
· The order gave Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth 60 days to develop the plan to defend the homeland against “ballistic, hypersonic, advanced cruise missiles, and other next-generation aerial attacks from peer, near-peer, and rogue adversaries.
A peep into history explicitly enunciates that nuclear deterrence, however potent and effective, is of little or no use as long as the adversary has a formidable and assured second strike capability. Yet Trump has decided to invest in IRON DOME system, which might take years to fructify. Will this decision lead to increased nuclear instability or will it actually be able to deter US adversaries from launching nukes on targets in mainland USA?
Iron Dome for America
Trump’s ambitious projection of securing USA from ballistic missile attacks in future will perhaps be one of the most important strategic issue of his current tenure. ‘IRON DOME’ concept of USA is not to be mixed up with Israeli anti-ballistic missile ‘IRON DOME’ system.
Turkish electronic giant ASELSAN is developing an ABM system ‘STEEL DOME’. Although USA and Turkiye fell apart on S-400 issue but both being members of NATO, USA might collaborate with Turkiye in developing its own ‘IRON DOME’ system.
The total cost to develop, build, and launch an initial constellation of 1,900 space-based interceptors would likely be on the order of $11 to $27 billion” — with the “catch” that such a constellation could only take on “a maximum of two missiles launched in a salvo”. That means that if three missiles were launched simultaneously, at least one would get through, a problem that is known as “absenteeism.” If China and Russia were to launch missiles at the US, one can safely assume it would be more than three.
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