Doctrine of ‘No First Use’ was already given a decent burial by President Putin, when he enunciated Putin’s Doctrine concerning use of nukes in 2020. Putin’s doctrine explicitly stated that Russia reserves the right to use nukes even against a non-nuclear nation, if Russia’s territorial integrity is threatened by massive assault by conventional weapons.
On 26th September, 2024 statement issued by Kremlin reads “Russia will use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear states under certain conditions. The primary condition for such option will be dictated by the military threats posed to Russia by non-nuclear weapon state supported by nuclear weapon states towards the war effort of Russia’s adversary” or words to that effect.
It implies that nuclear weapon states supporting Ukraine in its war against Russia will force Russia to use the nukes against Ukraine. While stating the modification of Russia’s policy on use of nukes, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said that latest Russian policy has been enunciated in the nuclear policy document titled “The foundations of state policy in the sphere of nuclear deterrence”. Although the final document is yet to be published. He went on to add that western nations (read NATO and USA) must consider it as definite signal. The change has been necessitated due to direct material support, both financial and weapons, of NATO and USA to Ukraine in its war against Russia.
Russia’s nuclear arsenal comprises mostly of MIRV capable Ballistic Missiles of short, medium and long range and is supported by Nuclear Bombers and Submarines. NATO led by USA continues to pump in weapons in Ukraine. Russia has warned NATO nations that in the event of Ukraine being provided with long range weapons, Russia will retaliate against the nation indulging in such practice.
Explicit and unambiguous confirmation of Russia’s intent and nuclear muscle flexing was evident during Russia’s foreign minister Sergei Lavrov’s speech in UNGA on 28th September. He was categorical in stating that west (read NATO and USA) is using Ukraine as a ‘tool’ to defeat Moscow strategically. He issued a stren warning that west must stop trying to fight victory with a nuclear weapon state. Lavrov stopped short of clarifying as to what actions of the west will invite a nuclear response from Russia in response to massive and disproportionate conventional weapon response, which might impinge and/or threaten Russia’s sovereignty.
World is witnessing genuine nuclear muscle flexing from an erstwhile super power of cold war era. Hitherto only Kim Jong Un, North Korean dictator of an impoverished nation, has openly announced that he will not hesitate to use nukes against USA due to continued support of South Korea.
Putin’s doctrine of 2020 was condemned by western nations. China’s tacit support towards Russian change is in conformity with China’s own thinking on the issue. China claims to adopt ‘No First Use’ policy with a caveat. Chinese policy document on use of nukes states that its NFU policy is not applicable in case of nation/s occupying Chinese territory. Without stating/naming the nation, it is obvious that such threat is aimed towards India in particular. It is another matter that China claims that Russia too is illegally occupying Chinese territory.
Western nations will regret their collective decision to ‘use’ Zelensky as a puppet. Biden administration has been directly responsible for Russia-Ukraine war slowly but surely headed towards a nuclear showdown. Zelensky’s demand of long range missiles, if acceded to by USA and other NATO nations might be the proverbial last straw. Fortunately latest reactions from few European nations, France in particular, as well as US politicians have indicated that quantum of aid to Ukraine might be reduced.
China-North Korea-Russia axis has been resurrected due to continued proxy war. In fact Russian media had favourably commented on the issue of possible containment of North Korean nuclear programme after former POTUS Mr Trump met Kim Jong Un. Biden administration has inadvertently allowed North Korean nuclear weapons programme to spread with tacit support of China and Russia.
Further escalation of Russia-Ukraine war will be beneficial to China directly. Internally Ukraine is having problems as is quite evident from removal of top brass by Zelensky. If quantum of aid to Ukraine from the west reduces markedly, Ukraine will not be able to sustain the war effort. With third winter setting in, Ukraine might find it difficult to maintain the tempo. From available reports Russia might be planning a major offensive in near future.
Russia has announced to the world about its intent to use nukes, if and when Russia’s integrity is threatened. USA has succeeded in promoting proxy war against Russia by promising Ukraine entry into NATO. World faced spectre of nuclear holocaust during cold war era also. Then USSR deployed nuclear missiles in Cuba in retaliation to USA deploying Jupiter missiles in Turkey. Even in 2024 USA maintains the largest USAF base outside mainland USA in Incirlik, Turkey where USA keeps about 90 nuclear warheads.
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