1. Many points have been raised by authors of articles and respondents to debates to either justify the need for Theatres or criticise that concept. Both viewpoints are pertinent and need to be considered and analysed by concerned authorities before taking a final call on this apparently critical need to meet present and future threats confronting India and it's Armed Forces .
2. Making theatres is not aping USA at all. America does not have Theatres across the world, they have Commands. Theatres are parts of Commands and not vice versa. If we create Theatres and put all three types of Forces under the theatre commander, as USA does, then that Theatre cannot seek forces from other Theatres, and why not? Because the planners have given him what is supposedly necessary for everything that a Theatre Commander is required to do, both Offensive & Defensive. This will be the Law for all Theatre Commanders . In the seminar at Pune on 19 Sep 24 there was lots of pressure for acceptance of Theatres based on the threat perceptions stated by the Think Tanks. It was made out that theatres will nullify the existing and future threats as listed by the promoters of theatres. This is patently wrong. Once again, if Indian Theatres are copying American Commands, then it has to be accepted that each Theatre is self sufficient to do everything envisaged while creating the Theatre. But that is not the fact, as shown ahead.
3. Another logical matter that is deliberately ignored and not brought up is this . American Commands are not contiguous and there is no overlap between them. But our theatres are contiguous and therefore overlap and interdependence is intrinsic and is silently accepted, but never stated. A sly move, so that their proposal cannot be broken down. If our Theatres are interdependent, and it is envisaged and desired to be thus, then that is what our operational commands are doing today? Exactly what the Four / Five Theatres will do. We are playing with words because something wondrously new and imaginative must emerge from all these Think Tanks, otherwise what are they doing? But when you play with words and pat yourself on the back, the spinoffs, internal and external, have to be considered with salutary and deleterious impacts. This is not a part of their study. They leave that to the Babus. But the Babus are not a part of our Think Tanks and they have poor ability to absorb military ideas and strategies. They will not be able to think through the bad and good fallout of changing from Commands to Theatres. The Fauji’s ability to defend theatres in public will not be easy. More on this later.
4. They made China look like a giant with enormous forces including their Air Force - PLAAF. The border issue was made to be unsolvable, even though we are engaged with China and seem to be making good progress. No one asked the serving generals on the ground what they think, why not? Can we all not see that Theatres is vociferously being pushed only by the Think Tanks, and in Seminars conducted under the aegis of these Think Tanks? What I also very clearly perceived is that when the drift of conversation deviates from Theatres being a good idea, the discussion gets terminated, and the looming frightening shadow of China-Pak combine is once again made to scare everyone present. Mrs Tara Kartha got just 5 mins, and she does not subscribe totally to the views of our Think Tanks . This is how it appeared to many of us. When Air Mshl Chopra mentioned that with the 1500 missiles China has against India, they can at best close max 5 to 6 airfields of IAF but added that other Run Ways( RW) will be available. India has built about 40 civil airfields in the Northern and Eastern sectors for civil airlines, those RW are available for IAF. But Chopra added, on the other hand, were India to close just two airfields in Tibet, the PLAAF is crippled. This point was cut short with a diversion. I felt that the 2nd session was run with too much of predetermined deductions and the desire to get their point of view strongly reiterated.
5. China has been looming over us for decades. They have been stronger than us from day one, and even before the 20th century. All this diversionary data of population, number of bombers, submarines, airfields in Tibet, Taiwan, South China Sea, Malacca, is to ensure that those who talk against Theatres are overwhelmed by the enormity of the 'masala'. If we create a western theatre at Jaipur or Patiala or Chandigarh, the theatre's task will always remain primarily Defensive with an Offensive plan to unsettle Pak against whom the Defensive posture has been created. And behold the task of our Western, South Western and Southern Army Commands is just that, is it not? Which is why Modi is unconvinced. The Think Tanks may have the space and time to espouse their theories and get captive audiences, but the Govt of India are not bewakoof, neither the neta nor the babu. May I add neither are many veterans and serving generals / air marshals / admirals. It is so obvious that these Theatre wallas are getting impatient about delay in creation of theatres. They may be running out of steam because no new ideas / facts to support theatres are emerging. The idea may die before it is born. This will be unacceptable to the Think Tanks. But such premature deaths happen in all proposals do they not?
6. There will be no savings by merging these 17 commands into theatres. Operational Theatres will have no responsibility for Recruiting, Initial Training, Equipping, Manufacturing, Procuring, etc. During the seminar in Pune on 19 Sep 24 this was very specifically said and more than once. Thus, Training Commands, Maintenance Command IAF, Workshops, BRDs, Dockyards, Ord Factories, PSUs, DRDO Labs, Cadets’ Training Academies, Staff & Tactical / Strategic War Colleges, will all remain intact with their Three Star commandants, large directing and admin staff and entourages. With Theatres we will create many more 4 star commanders with associated staff, vehicles, aircraft, heptrs, accoutrements, entourages, support services and so on. I once again say, if we have 7 to 8 Four Star General Officers within India, our Armed Forces will crumble under the collective weight of the bandobast that goes with them. USA has 43 Four Star officers across the globe and their total strength is150 lakhs, making one Four Star officer per 350,000. We have maximum 15 lakh strength supporting 8 Four Star generals, or one for 188,000, and all 8 of them cloistered within the country. Total imbalance and so top heavy that the structure will tend to topple by itself, needing constant propping up. This truth is never discussed, why not?
7. Lastly, as mentioned, by reorganising Commands into Theatres, are we telling all our neighbours that our posture is now Positively Offensive with territorial ambitions? Our 17 Commands do not project that image. If we had the Eastern Theatre, for argument's sake, from January 2024, what could and would this Eastern Theatre commander have done when Bangladesh erupted into chaos and remains so? Nothing at all, just as Eastern Army Command, Eastern Air Command and Eastern Naval Command did nothing. What could a Central Theatre have done when Nepal was in disorder for years? Nothing, just as Central Army & Air Commands did nothing. What's this addiction to Theatres when it does nothing, and cannot do anything new and adventurous? Just a renaming exercise, to achieve what? Very much like renaming of, Mumbai, Kolkata, Prayagraj, Chennai, Bangaluru, Mysuru. Nothing has changed except huge expenses in rewriting these names everywhere. Crores wasted. Same is the case with Commands to Theatres, no conceivable and visible beneficial change, just expenses.
8. This theme of Theatres is being attributed to Gen Rawat. It could not be his idea alone; there must have been many military thinkers who put out this idea. Many would have been students of staff colleges of USA & Britain where such theories flourish. In India for many years our military campaigners have talked of vast mechanised forces supported by armed heptrs and fixed wing fighters driving deep into Pakistan as an offensive doctrine which precipitated into Brass Tacks and Parakram. Both gave us lessons negating this idea, which sadly we do not accept. I have never ever heard any seminar or article mentioning about the inadequacies that emerged out of Brass Tacks & Parakram. If we believe that Pakistan will let us enter their country with two armoured divisions and make a run for the Eastern shores of the Indus, we are living in a fool’s paradise. And further, the world will not let you do it. That kind of action by India will bring into reality a combined Sino-Pak collaboration, with hesitation from other nations, because we threaten the existence of Pakistan. Until such an existential threat overwhelms Pakistan, China is unlikely to interfere in a Pak-India battle, and Saudi, UAE, Europe, USA, Russia will restrain China. If you threaten to destroy Pakistan, our friends will not intervene on our behalf. Why no one speaks in these terms is dangerous for India. In 1971, Islamabad ignored the impact upon India by their actions against Bengalis. Thereafter it went out of control and Indira got the upper hand. By creating Theatres are we making the same mistake that Islamabad & Rawalpindi made in 1971? Not one speaker in any seminar talks about the problems that Jaishankar and his diplomats will have in assuaging our immediate neighbours about what this Theatre Bazi means. No nation puts so much firepower and manpower under One Commander unless they have offensive intentions. There is a Universal Dictum being ignored, and it says, "Unless Power is well Dispersed; It is always dangerous". Can our Think Tanks discuss such issues and ignore the political and diplomatic fall out? What of the commercial backlash? What about our oil suppliers? Can we remain a blossoming economy if militarily we rattle our sabres and gnash our teeth? Theatres are doing exactly that, showing off our inclination towards aggressiveness. This is not the India that others want to be friends with. Is this the India we envisage in 2047? Will the great Indian Middle class accept this status? Can we become viksit and militarily aggressive at the same time? Is this the image of Bharat that India wants to project?
9. We have a loud Opposition which can twist Theatres into embarrassment. They questioned Kargil, Surgical Strike, Balakot and other engagements. They can create doubts in the hearts & minds of our Middle Class. Their grip on social media is intense, and the Fauji Theatre proponents will be crippled to defend their creations and have to rely on the Babus to justify, something Babus cannot do to our satisfaction. The Think Tank stalwarts cannot engage with media and the articulate analysts who are with the Congress / AAP / DMK / SP / TMC / Communists. These men & women do a lot of homework and pose difficult questions which sound very reasonable, but unanswerable by us. My humble submission, possibly, our theatre bazi will be more appropriate and pertinent after 2047 when we hope to be a New Bharat. Never forget that, being satisfied with what you already have is far more important than; seeking and getting more of what you want, but may not need.
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