"IRAN has, by default, given an opportunity to Israel to strike its Nuclear Facilities at Fordow and Natanz." - TPS
"Israel does not waste time on deliberations; we act." - Iron Lady Golda Meir.
BACKGROUND
Nearly 75 years ago, when an independent Jew nation Israel was born, the first two nations to recognize Israel as independent nation state were Turkey and Iran. Until Shah’s regime, Iran-Israel relations were cordial. But take over of Iran by Ayatollah Khomeini in 1979 changed it all. Iran believed that Israel had no right to exist. Hostility between Iran and Israel continued to grow. USA open support of Israel made matters worse.
Israel strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus few days ago could not have gone unpunished by Iran. Late night strike on 14th April, 2024 on Israeli targets by Iranian drones and SSMs was overdue. The extent of damage caused to life and property is not yet known. Nearly 300 drones/SSM were launched by Iran.
USA has been categorical in stating that USA will protect Israel. However, POTUS has clearly advised Netanyahu that retaliatory strike by Israel will/may result in escalation of the conflict.
The Israeli Air Force has long been the tip of the spear that can strike targets far from home to help ensure the safety of the State of Israel. Operation Opera in 1981 resulted in destruction of Osirak Iraqi nuclear reactor in the outskirts of Baghdad. Eight F-16s escorted by four F-15 accomplished the mission. In September 2007, the IAF successfully bombed an alleged Syrian nuclear reactor as part of Operation Orchard.
The IAF has not announced that there are any plans to strike Iran’s nuclear program, but IAF has recently held large-scale drills simulating such attacks. In one of those Israeli Adir aircraft practiced how to breach Iranian Air Defences, and in another IAF pilots took part in long-range combat missions.
ISRAEL’S OPTIONS
In spite of US advice to the contrary, Israel would be actively considering a retaliatory strike on Iranian target of strategic value. Ever since Iran made substantial progress in developing its nuclear capability, Israel has always considered a strike on major nuclear facilities at Fordow and Natanz, the only strategic value target..
Destruction of Iraqi and Syrian nuclear facility by Israeli Air Force clearly enunciated Israel’s resolve to ensure that nations, which do not recognize Israel as a nation state, will not be allowed to develop nukes. Is Iran in the same basket? However, a successful strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities will not be as simple as it was in case of Iraq and Syria due to two reasons;
Firstly, Iranian nuclear facilities are in dispersed location safely embedded into hills.
· Secondly, even a direct flight from Israel to Iran nuclear sites will require mid-air refueling/refueling halt.
MISSION CAPABILITY: ISRAEL
WEAPON PLATFORMS
Resurrection of F-15 Eagle as a front line fighter of USAF has not made the headlines it deserved. New ‘AVTAR’ of F-15 called F-15 EX is already under production with advanced avionics, ECM/ECCM suite, and powerful AESA radar. But the most astonishing change in F-15 EX is supposed to be its enhanced weapon carrying capability. As per Boeing F-15 EX will be capable of carrying a whopping 29,500 pounds of weapons. If the claim is true, it will be the highest weapon load carried by any fighter anywhere in the world.
The strategic significance of the modified F-15 variant will be enormous. Israel has already acquired F-15EX and F-35A. Acquisition of F-15EX enables Israel the capability to consider and plan her third strike on a nuclear reactor; first being Osirak in Baghdad, Iraq, and the second one was in Syrian Al Kibar facility.
Israeli Air Force has carried out modifications to every weapon platform imported from USA and operate it with a different suffix. For instance a F-15 Strike Eagle of USAF suitably modified by Israel is called F-15I Ra’am(Thunder). They consider it in the class of a strategic aircraft, however even this aircraft cannot carry a 30,000 pound GBU-57, the heaviest weapon with precision guidance. F-15EX is supposed to be capable of taking off with maximum take off weight of about 80,000 pounds. Empty weight of F-15 is about 32,000 pounds thus about 48,000 pounds is available for fuel and weapons. Excluding 30,000 pounds of GBU-57, a F-15 can carry 18,000 pounds of fuel with the option of mid air refueling at a suitable juncture of flight. Indeed mounting a GBU-57 on the centre line of F-15EX will be a monumental and possibly impossible task. But IAF is known to have pulled off the ‘impossible’ before on numerous occasions.
WILL US SUPPORT ISRAEL?
USA has provided the platform as well as the weapon, which can effectively engage Iran’s nuclear facilities embedded in deep mountains. However, USA has advised Israel not to escalate the conflict. Will Israel heed to US advice?
GBU-57 also called Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) was developed in early 2000 and is the most powerful bunker busting weapon existing. USAF also has a new deep penetration weapon called Global Precision Attack Weapon (GPAW) being developed for the future bomber of USAF, the B-21 and is few years away from being operational. GPAW is a product of what USAF calls it as Next Generation Penetrator (NGP). NGP is expected to be much smaller, both in size and weight (one third of GBU-57) and is likely to be mounted on F-35.
Israel may have another option of dropping GBU-57, if made available. Alternate platform might be a modified C-130 aircraft. One might recall that sometimes, in 2017, President Trump had authorized a strike on ISIS Tunnels located in Achin district of Nangarhar province in Afghanistan. Mission was flown by a modified C-130 called MC-130, which carried a GBU-43, Massive Ordnance Air Blast (MOAB) weighing about 22,000 pounds.
Does it leave any doubt about Israel’s future course of action?
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