By Gp Capt TP Srivastava
“Hamas attack shows space-based sensing can’t see everything. A new Pentagon constellation will close some gaps, but the need for “old-school” human intelligence will remain.”
“Hamas appears to have used “old-school techniques” such as in-person comms to share information, said Bryan Clark, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute.
“Military analyst at John Hopkins Institute said “There is no substitute to HUMINT. Political instability in Israel is also a contributory factor.”
The above statements have been made by acclaimed international agencies/think tanks on 13th October, 2023; six days after HAMAS erased the ‘invincibility’ status of Israel with an unthinkable strike. What I, an ordinary Indian, wrote about the same event on 7th October, within hours of the holocaust is pasted below;
Intelligence Failure
“While the post-mortem will come out with various reasons for intelligence failure but what is crystal clear is the fact that Israeli HUMINT failed totally. Satellite, drone, and electronic surveillance also failed to capture the movements. HAMAS has infiltrated into Israel border villages/cities, which has already resulted in bloodshed on streets. Over dependence on Artificial Intelligence and bravado might have been instrumental in this monumental disaster facing Israel.”
Political Instability
“Israel has been facing political/social instability due to certain judicial reforms related issues countrywide. Perhaps pre occupation with internal strife led to dilution of attention on national security issue, the consequences of which Israel is facing. PM Netanyahu is heading a coalition government.”
Israel’s Defensive Mindset
Defensive mindset of an individual or an entity is projected by two actions wherein the entity operates at the extremes; Firstly, the entity continues to accept the unimplementable terms and conditions of the adversary, And Secondly, by laying down unimplementable terms and conditions to be followed by the adversary.
Israel has done just that and committed a grave error by issuing the threat to vacate northern Gaza in such time frame. Sheer logistics involved in moving more than one million humans under peaceful conditions would require much larger window. Just a case in point; how will hospitals move the patients? Existing road space in Gaza would not allow such movement. The only thing worse than issuing any threat is not to execute it. It proves incompetence in decision making.
Israel’s threat to vacate northern Gaza by nearly one million residents by 0800h, Gaza Time on 14th October (which has passed) is yet another example of ‘defensive mindset’ emanating out of the desperate situation Israel finds itself entirely due to spectacular lapse of intelligence gathering and monitoring the most volatile border on the globe.
Even if residents wanted to vacate the area voluntarily, one million people cannot move out in such a short time. Israel’s threat is, therefore, counter productive and self defeating. UN has called Israel’s evacuation orders as horrendous.
Israel’s Options, if Threat Ignored
While Israel continues with use of Air Power to attack Gaza Strip causing indescribable damage to infra structure viz homes, hospitals, business houses etc, it is obviously nowhere near destroying the HAMAS leadership. Most of whom are either based outside Gaza or are hiding in underground and unidentified structures in Gaza strip. Punishing civilian population has never succeeded in achieving military objectives. It only results in further alienation.
It is/was a foregone conclusion that nearly one million people will not/cannot vacate north Gaza. The question arises; will Israel move in with ground troops to flush out the hiding HAMAS terrorists? Is Israel willing to undertake the killing of hundreds of thousands of innocent civilians? Will the world sit back and watch?
Hopefully Israel leadership, both civil and military will recall the disaster of 2014 during which nearly 40 Israeli soldiers were killed during a limited ground offensive in Gaza. By issuing an unimplementable threat Israel has unwittingly placed itself in a hole from which extricating itself will be a loss of face either way. It clearly projects/indicates that unstable minds are taking decisions in Israel.
Violation of Fundamental Precept of Principles of War
Israel leadership has proved beyond doubt that it has wilfully violated the most important precept of winning any war ‘Selection and Maintenance of Aim’.
Due to extreme crisis situation Israel leadership failed to select an implementable aim and went public with announcement that its military/national aim is to destroy HAMAS in entirety. It is surprising that a country like Israel does not understand that ‘Terrorism cannot be eliminated; it can only be contained’. Terror outfits change/adopt new names faster than we change our clothes.
Statement by Israel Defence Minister Yuov Gallant that “we will destroy HAMAS” is mere rhetoric”.
Evolving Global Situation
Almost the entire globe is waiting with bated breath and hoping that ordinary civilians are not massacred because of a terrorist organization successfully attacked and killed thousands of innocent Israelis.
United Nations, EU countries, India and many others have appealed for calm. Should their appeal fall on deaf ears and further escalation takes place, it will only result in more casualties.
USA has unequivocally supported Israel’s stand in letter and spirit but has failed to advise restraint.
USA Secretary of State and Defence Secretary have visited Tel Aviv.
USA has already sent unspecified quantity/type of arms. More are due to arrive
The most important event relates to the US Navy moving two Carrier Battle Groups, one in the East Mediterranean (USS Gerald Ford) and the other one near South Korea (USS Ronald Reagan). In the post 2nd world War era there has been only one occasion when the USA deployed three or more Carrier Battle Groups simultaneously, which was during Cuban Missile Crisis.
Iran continues to maintain pregnant silence and has merely stated that it provided no assistance to HAMAS in carrying out the attack. Support for Palestinians is growing worldwide in form of protests being held.
Will USA and Israel consider attacking Iranian nuclear facilities on the pretext of Iran sheltering HAMAS? If that happens, consequences might be unimaginable.
Ground Offensive
Should Israel launch a ground offensive to flush out HAMAS terrorists, IDF will have to trudge through narrow streets and be prepared for firing from all sides. It is not yet known that HAMAS is equipped with anti-tank missiles. If yes, IDF will suffer huge losses. Collateral damage will be huge. HAMAS will not hesitate in using hostages as human shield.
Should Israel launch the ground offensive, stories of urban warfare during 2nd World War will pale into insignificance.
Ground offensive is not an option. If Israel goes ahead with ground offensive, it will result in human disaster of enormous magnitude.
Hostage Exchange
The fate of hostages held by HAMAS will have to be taken into account before launching ground offensive. Israel and the world will have to decide the fate of hostages. Possible options of saving the hostages might be;
UN brokered cease fire with UN Peace Keeping force deployed in Gaza.
Allow safe passage to HAMAS terrorists hiding in underground locations to a destination/place of their choice.
Future
As of now there is no end in sight. But one thing is certain. Israel cannot come out winner in this war as happened in 1967 and 1973. Israel will have to reconcile and accept the huge and disproportionate cost in terms of human lives and more importantly ignominy of accepting the ‘moral’ defeat at the hands of a terrorist organization. HAMAS has unquestionably and successfully erased the ‘INVINCIBLE ISRAEL’ image. Unfortunately Israel has only itself to blame for the disaster. It would be a while before Israel achieves internal stability. But for now Israel will have to face internal turmoil even after the cease fire. Benjamin Netanyahu and IDF Chief might have to resign. Although IDF Chief has been magnanimous in accepting that intelligence failure caused this catastrophe. Ironic but true; in India no one has accepted responsibility for Kargil fiasco till date. 25th anniversary of Kargil disaster is merely few months away.
Will there be a ‘light’ at the end of the tunnel in form of two nations, Israel and Palestine co-existing for the sake of their innocent civilians?
I will conclude the present write up by quoting an Ethiopian saying; “When the Spider Webs unite, they can tie up a Lion”.Never ignore a harmless looking spider web. Lesson for India.
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