Is the Chinese Invasion of Taiwan Imminent? Veterans Debate

EDITOR'S NOTE

An article titled: 'Why The Chinese Invasion of Taiwan is Imminent ' by Col Rajinder Kushwaha was published by MVI on 4 Nov 2024. The author brings out several reasons through his individual analysis to support his hypothesis of the imminent invasion of Taiwan by China . The publication of this article has resulted in the receipt of several responses from veterans giving some interesting , divergent views and opinions on a linked subject ,ie. ' Is the Chinese invasion of Taiwan imminent ? '

These varied responses from.veterans with their own individual perceptions, analysis or hypothesis are published below for the benefit of readers . It is left to the readers to form their views and reach their conclusions. Needless to say, this debate will surely continue for a long time ahead with new analyses being drawn with changing situations and linked power equations of the world.

https://www.missionvictoryindia.in/post/global-crescent-of-crisis-middle-east-to-ukraine-to-taiwan

Maj Gen CD Sawant :- I personally do not agree. The USA has many checks and balances procedures. Despite the fact that Joe Biden is a weak President, there are other powers that are responsible for policy decisions. These powers, especially the deep state will not permit the integration of Taiwan with China. Let us wait and watch.

Col RN Gokhale :- Makes an interesting read. Its annexation of Taiwan in the next two months is a feasibility, as in either case of outcome of US elections is a win-win situation. It says Taiwan a proxy state for US. But is it that easy, to capture a densely populated, technologically advanced country in the given time frame, that definately would be in a high state of alert. If US sits quiet, it will lose a solid military base and firm base near China, which it can ill afford.

The UN, besides condemning, will do nothing as it itself is a failed organisation. But how the other small peripheral helpless countries can do nothing but cry, the Phillipines and Indonesia islands, and possibly one odd island of Japan would be next on the anvil.

If Taiwan is lost, the biggest loser will be the US. No country will ever trust the US, The US will lose allies in South Asian countries, which it cannot afford to.

China has some serious border issues with Russia, which for the time being are being ignored by Russia.

Col Rajinder Kushwaha :- I agree that China might not be able to gobble up entire Taiwan within the next two months.

If Russia, with all its might, could not defeat Ukraine in over three years , certainly , Taiwan topography allows it to sustain itself for six months . I have said so in my observations . But Chinese interests lay in doing it within 2 month. If China cannot do it now , it would never be able to unite Taiwan with China .

But here is the red herring . This is what US military planners want to achieve by engaging China with Taiwan . They want to cause attrition to China to weaken it, like it has been doing with Russia in Ukraine . USA wants all its three enemies , namely Russia , Iran, and China , to engage with proxies - fighting wars at the cost of others — part of a clever strategy .

Col Rajinder Kushwaha :- ( Reply to Gen CD Sawant Response ):

Gen Sawant has a point of view — but think it differently .

US interests lie in China invading and getting bogged down in Taiwan .

It might give a 'deliberate window of opportunity ' to go for it and thus engage three enemies separately through her proxies .

This would weaken its potential competitors .

Modern wars are more of use of proxies — it is a different form of war - WOM ( War by other Means) . Aim and purpose is not to gain territory but to totally annihilate your adversary . It is to administer the 'slow poison' through proxies or even 'sponsored militancy' . Grey Zone warfare and proxies have made / sent direct wars out of the syllabus of belligerency. Non- Kinetic means are more important. I think USA would like China to try this 'misadventure'?

Brig Sanjay Sangwan :-

China is unlikely to attack Taiwan for the following reasons-

1. Xi's position within China is weak, and reportedly, PLA is already out of his control, and there is talk of an imminent coup.

2. China's economy is not in a position to support a war.

3. The pandemic and BRI or OBOR have dented and harmed China's global image, and most countries do not want commercial trade relations with China. Attack on Taiwan is likely to severely damage their international relations, and the Chinese economy survives largely on cheap exports.

4. An attack on Taiwan is likely to pull in the QUAD in defence of Taiwan, which may result in loss of control of South China Sea and Indo- Pacific region.

5. An attack on Taiwan is likely to result in extensive physical destruction, and China gains nothing by taking over a destroyed industrial island.

6. PLA's efficacy too remains suspect despite aggressive technology display by the Chinese as hardly any of their equipment has been exposed to actual combat.

7. With the help of BRICS and SCO, China is maintaining an image of a global power. LAC exchanges with India have dented their image and another similar stalemate or a defeat will be a death knell to their Middle Kingdom dreams.

8. The only possibility of an attack on Taiwan, as I see is if Xi manages to avoid a coup and he decides to reassert his authority and control over PLA, CPC, and China as a nation.

Lt Col Manoj K Channan :- I agree. China's primary focus is to use soft power and contest US unipolar world order. Most think tanks and strategists seem to situate an appreciation and not appreciate the situation. The reason, in addition, is that the conscripted PLA army was never battle-tested. Firepower demonstrations are good photo ops; engaging with an enemy is a different ball game, which the Chinese leadership understands and will not engage in kinetic contact on the LAC / Taiwan.

Col Rajinder Kushwaha :- My hypothesis was based on two points :- 'One China' Policy, whereby Taiwan was vigorously claimed as part of China. Xi Jinping has been very vehement about this . His weakening political clout within CCP might lead him to invade Taiwan to arouse national sentiments in his favour .

China has a golden window of opportunity of two months till 20 January 2025 , when US administration would be at its weakest due to confusing political situation and indecisive leadership . If China thinks it can militarily capture hostile Taiwan , then this was the 'window' of time. Otherwise, it can forget about it. Such opportunities are unlikely to come through in the near future.

The question as to why would USA want China to invade Taiwan is to engage China in a war of attrition and put brakes on Xi Jinping’s dream of becoming 'Numero Uno' in global affairs by 2049. USA has been wanting this for a long time. It is in this process that it has been trying to be intimate with India. Otherwise, it has 'no love lost' with India .

Somehow, India was not falling into her trap — so it is arm twisting through Canada and the 'K' movement there.

Maj Gen Raj Mehta:- The proposition that China has hasty annexation of Taiwan in mind by Jan 2025 with USA tacitly allowing China to get mired in this supposed 2 month 'misadventure' is speculative and surreal

It does not need assembly of facts to explain it further because the idea has no foundation whatsoever.

China is a patient country. Its Taiwan dare has been enunciated. It will wait decades to realise it. Now is not the time , the US elections being an absurd red herring. Whoever wins will impact China very little. USA hasn't changed its core policies with the change of President except semantically. Also, Chinese success in Taiwan will need firm political gains in Taiwanese politics, getting a pro unification Govt placed. There is no indication of such developments. None.

The notion that Kamala Harris is a deep state proxy with Obama calling the shots defies credibility, too. One is stumped to find WhatsApp University postulates taken at face value.

If elected, Kamala Harris will be pragmatic and cautious. *She will wave only the US national interest banner. Taiwan isn't part of that in term of the US sitting by as China savages Taiwan.*

Lastly, two points. Taiwan is no spring chicken. Any invasion of Taiwan will be prohibitive in costs and will fail. China left Vietnam in shame in 1979 with 25000 dead in 30 days.China remembers.

Taiwan is superbly prepared for combating invasion. It also has USA with it. It has fierce patriotism and hitech assets, concrete defences and national will and huge cyber assets.

Secondly, Xi is not foolish. His rule is under strain. His economy is strained. His team isn't as coherent and capable as before. He needs reformatting time. Hence, he has eased off on India. This is the worst time for his Taiwanese 'misadventure'. His aim is to get China competing again. Taiwan is not the way he seeks. His scares over Taiwan is old strategy to keep Taiwan tense.

So ironical to call the surreal Taiwanese invasion a 'misadventure' ,then call it a two month success.This opiate of misadventure and success. It is no battle winner,this mix.

Brig BL Poonia :- I agree with Maj Gen Raj Mehta and Maj Gen CD Sawant. It is a wrong presumption that as China grows in strength and stature, it would resort to coercive means to secure its terretorial claims. The study of border settlements between China and her neighbours has, in fact, revealed quite the opposite. It believes in infinite patience as enunciated by Deng in his 24-character strategy : *"Observe calmly; secure your position; cope with affairs calmly; hide your capabilities and bide your time; and be good at maintaining a low profile."* The underlying logic of this is to avoid calling attention to herself thereby precipitating those regional or global responses that seek to retard the growth of its Comprehensive National Power.

This has led to a two-pronged approach aimed at securing Chinese interests with respect to its territorial disputes :

● If the dispute in question is both intrinsically trivial and marginal to China's larger interests, it seeks to resolve it amicably to pursue larger goals.

● If the dispute is significant and cannot be resolved rapidly to China's advantage by peaceful means, it advocates an *infinite postponement of the issue* without conceding its basic aim.

Despite the 'century of humiliation' under imperialism, China has not pursued its claim to areas that were governed by China at some point in its chequered history. For unresolved disputes, there remains a probability that force, or the threat of use of force could be a part of the settlement process; however, the level of this threat is likely to be low for terretorial disputes.

While one can continue discussing this topic as a matter of academic interest, nothing of this sort, ie annexation of Taiwan with the mainland, is going to be attempted in the near foreseeable future. And it's for the entire world to see the same.

Col Rajinder Kushwaha :- My concluding response is to highlight the need to explain the meaning of the word 'Hypothesis' . Hypothesis, as Google says : "an idea that is suggested as the possible explanation for something but has not yet been found to be true or correct”.

Respondents have commented as if I have made an astrological prediction to say that it “will” happen. The underlying principle of a hypothesis is that it “might” happen.

I have explained a possibility due to the unfolding of ongoing events and transforming Geopolitics. In one of my replies, I have given two reasons for my hypothesis . I have also said that the available WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY of TWO MONTHS is the best chance for China to annex Taiwan — if she thinks she was militarily capable .

As far as USA is concerned , it would very much like to see China getting bogged down in Taiwan . It wanted India to do so , but India has not fallen into her trap — this is why Bangla Desh problem — Khalistan push - and now Mizoram CM is being cultivated .

Anyway — my proposition was based on developing geopolitics and the global Crescent of Crisis , engulfing Middle East to East Asia .