The answer is in the affirmative. And it might happen before National Assembly elections on Pakistan, in 08 February 2024, so as to serve as an excuse to postpone them. Recent upsurge in terrorist acts in J& K gives an indication of such an intention of Pakistan. A terrorist attack in Poonch, the other day, on an army convoy, has led to the martyrdom of four Indian soldiers. It is alleged that some 25-30 militants have infiltrated into J& K to intensify terrorist attacks, so as to provoke India for a military conflict. India has launched a major operation in Poonch Area to eliminate them.
Recent outbursts by Pakistan’s “care-taker” Prime Minister in ‘Azad Kashmir’ Assembly to engage India in over 300 wars, also gives out the blue print of such a thinking of Pakistan . Pakistan’s permanent representative in UNO has recently threatened to launch nuclear strikes on India. There has to be a reason for such unprovoked threats from two key office holders of Pakistan.
Indo- Pak war would also serve the interests of China, who was keen to retard India’s economic growth and development. Reports coming from China say that Chinese economy was crumbling. Therefore Xi Jinping of China would encourage Pakistan to engage India militarily to stall its rapid growth. It is in this context that military sources of India allege that Pakistan’s latest misadventure in Poonch was in collaboration with China. It is very much possible.
The internal situation in Pakistan gives a clear indication that Pakistan Army wants to delay/ Postpone coming National Assembly elections in Pakistan. The reason for this are the prospects of Imran Khan’s Party, PTI, winning the scheduled elections on 08 February 2024. Inspire of Imran Khan being in the jail and disqualified his popularity has not diminished. In fact it has risen. It is on record to know that Imran khan and General Asim Munir, the current Chief of Pakistan Army were at daggers drawn with each other.
As long as Asim Munir was the Chief of Pakistan Army, he would not allow Imran Khan to come to power. To do so, he can wage a war with India, not only delay elections but also work on minimising Imran Khan’s probability of winning elections. If Imran Khan comes to power, not only General Asim Munir but also many other Generals, including retired, would face his wrath.
It is no rocket science to know that Pakistan Army does not want this to happen, particularly after what had happened on 09 May 2023. The incident relates to PTI workers response to Imran’s arrest, when they had attacked Army installations, including the residence of the Corps Commander at Lahore. His arrest was in response to various cases of corruption, such as “Toshakhana” (Treasury) case, when he was the Prime Minister. He was alleged to have manipulated rules to under value and take away the gifts, given to him as Prime Minister, by the foreign Governments. Despite his arrest, the spirit of his his supporters has not been dampened.
Besides, the situation in Balochistan has become uncontrollable. Only the other day Islamabad, capital of Pakistan, faced a violent situation when people of Balochistan marched into the city to know about the fate of “missing youth” from Balochistan, who had been allegedly arrested, over the years, by Pakistan Military. Situation there is getting worse day by day. Suicide attacks by Baloch separatists have intensified. Separatist movement is gaining momentum. Situation in KPK is no better. Daily attacks on Pakistan Army posts by TTP along the Durand Line have further worsened security situation.
The situation in POT JAK (Pakistan Occupied Territories of J& K) is far from normal. Rising prices of daily items, cooking gas and electricity has led people to revolt. Anti- Pakistan sentiments were swelling. In so called ‘Azad Kashmir’, local people have uprooted electric poles out of anger. They say that Electricity was produced in POT JAK at the rate of ₹10/ unit but given to local residents at the rate of ₹80-100/ unit. Some elements in GB were openly expressing a desire to join India. Indian Home Minister’s recent statements in the Indian Parliament have further added fuel to the fire.
In view of the above, the easiest way to divert attention of the people from local issues and checkmating Imran Khan from coming to power, a limited military conflict with India was the answer. Thus, the war with India would kill two birds with one stone. It may also serve the purpose of USA to arm twist India —who is cut off on India’s stance on Ukraine. It may be noted that Pakistan’s army Chief, General Asim Munir and his ISI Chief Lt Gen Nadeem Anjum were in USA — probably briefing and seeking her approval. It may be noted that JOE BIDEN, US President has, at the last moment, turned down Indian invitation to be the chief Guest on Indian Republic Day Parade on 26 January 2024. It is normally not done because formal invitation was sent after informal approval. There is something fishy.
Therefore Indian army and the nation has to be on the alert in the month of January 2024, to deal with the war- like situation, if not a full - fledged war. It could be another Kargil type operation. To ensure that India does not escalate the conflict beyond LC, say into GB, Pakistan has begun to give nuclear threat. So, from all accounts, Indo - Pak war was imminent.
By the time POTUS (President of The United States) gives his “State of the Union” address. Size and scope may vary from skirmishes on the LC to an intense conflict of 10-12 days. Keep your fingers crossed.
Author Details
Col Rajinder Kushwaha
Email - rajee7949@gmail.com
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