Iranian Missile Strike on Israel
Finally the ‘king’ has come to rescue the dead ‘pawns’. Haniyeh and Nasrullah, Iranian pawns heading HAMAS and Hezbollah have been eliminated along with many lesser pawns by precise strikes by Israel. Iranian intervention was a foregone conclusion. ‘When’ was the question, which has now been answered by Iran by launching few hundred missiles hitting Israeli targets after midnight on 1st October, 2024. Extent of damage caused is not known. Israeli PM said that damage was minimal.
It is important to understand what kind of damage a conventional ballistic missile carrying a 500-1000 kg warhead can do. Most of such SSMs do not carry heavier warheads. Even if the missile carries a 1000 kg conventional warhead the damage caused will be minimal unless each missile scores a direct hit on a over the surface structure. Penetration capability
of such warheads is extremely limited hence underground bunkers would not be damaged.
Significance of Direct Iranian Offensive
Iran has given Israel a golden opportunity to strike at its nuclear installations at Natanz and Fordow in particular. Although most nuclear installations in Iran are embedded deep underground hence conventional weapons are ineffective. Even the USAF deep pentetrator bomb may not reach the depth of more than 50 meter.
However the most important fallout of Iranian strike is that it provides Israel a legitimate right to retaliate. Two most important targets inside Iran are its vast oil and nuclear installations. Israel will focus on both but nuclear installations will be priority one.
Past Strikes by Israel on Nuclear Plants
Destruction of Iraqi and Syrian nuclear facility by Israeli Air Force clearly enunciated Israel’s resolve to ensure that nations, which do not recognize Israel as a nation state, will not be allowed to develop nukes. Is Iran in the same basket? However successful strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities will not be as simple as it was in case of Iraq and Syria due to following reasons;
· Firstly, Iranian nuclear facilities are in dispersed location safely embedded into hills.
· Secondly, Israel fighters do not have adequate combat radius of action to reach Iranian nuclear installations at Natanz and Fordow.
· Thirdly Iranian facilities are heavily defended with anti aircraft guns and combination of Quick Reaction Surface to Air Missiles of various ranges.
Can Israel Strike Iranian Facilities?
Platform limitation of combat radius of action will not stop Israel from attempting to destroy premier centrifuge enrichment facility at Natanz and Fordow. USAF mid air refuellers, if provided by USA, will resolve the range issue. USA has already provided the most potent weapon for engaging targets embedded deep underground/hills.
While a single strike at the target may not cause any damage but sustained strikes at the same crater created by earlier strikes will definitely result in bombs penetrating the installation. Additionally direct attack on entrance to these installations, which are overground may/will result in denial of access from outside. Israel must be having large scale pictures of these vital installations, which will be used for targeting.
Currently IAF inventory comprises of F-16I, F-15 E/I and recently acquired F-35A. None of these aircraft are capable of carrying a weapon, which will penetrate hardened nuclear facility underground, where Iranian nuclear facility at Natanz and Fodow is located. Israeli Air Force has carried out modifications to every weapon platform imported from USA and operate it with a different suffix. For instance a F-15 Strike Eagle of USAF suitably modified by Israel is called F-15I Ra’am(Thunder). Israelis are capable of modifying the new variant of F-15 to carry the GBU-57. F-15 is supposed to be capable of taking off with maximum take off weight of about 80,000 pounds. Empty weight of F-15 is about 32,000 pounds thus about 48,000 pounds is available for fuel and weapons. Excluding 30,000 pounds of GBU-57, a F-15 can carry 18,000 pounds of fuel with the option of mid air refueling at a suitable juncture of flight. Indeed mounting a GBU-57 on the centre line of F-15EX will be a monumental and possibly impossible task. But IAF is known to have pulled off the ‘impossible’ before on numerous occasions.
Israel is quite capable of exercising ‘ONE WAY’ option. Approximate distance of Natanz and Fordow from Tel Aviv is about 2000 km. No existing Israeli fighter has such combat radius of action. With USA still maintaining military presence in Iraq, possibility of mid air refueling over Iraqi territory during outbound leg cannot be ruled out. Also modified C-130 can be used.
Will US Support Israel?
Present US administration has unequivocally announced total support to Israel. Previous US administration headed by Trump was determined to see Iran’s nuclear capability destroyed. In Israel they have a willing partner to execute the task. If Israel can deliver a massive ordnance penetrator bomb like the GBU-57, Israel might be successful in destroying nuclear installation. GBU-57 also called Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) was developed in early 2000 and is the most powerful bunker busting weapon existing. Israel may have another option of dropping GBU-57, if made available. Alternate platform might be a modified C-130 aircraft. One might recall that sometimes in 2017 President Trump had authorized a strike on ISIS Tunnels located in Achin district of Nangarhar province in Afghanistan. Mission was flown by a modified C-130 called MC-130, which carried a GBU-43, Massive Ordnance Air Blast (MOAB) weighing about 22,000 pounds.
If the USA provides Israel with F-15 EX and GBU-57, a strike on Iran’s nuclear facility will be a certainty. Even without F-15EX Israel will execute the mission by modifying their existing C-130 to carry the GBU-57.
PM Netanyahu on JCPOA
On assuming office of PM of Israel, Mr Netanyahu said “JCPOA is a horrible agreement. Deal fails to stop Iran from becoming a nuclear armed state. He added Israel will do whatever is necessary, with or without consent from the USA to stop Iran from having a nuclear arsenal. I want to protect against Iran’s aggression and against a regime that openly calls for annihilation of my country”. Now USA is also on board.
Iran has provided that opportunity to Israel. Israel will not let this opportunity slip away. Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari of IDF has said ‘we have plans’.
Israel AF would have planned this.
Iraq knows Israel's limitation of striking long and tgts that deep.
Any strike cannot be without US active support, US has advised against it. Striking oil assets will fuel crude.
Strike using C130 as done in past not possible in Iran, unlike Afghanistan or Iraq these assets would have been guarded by a wide range of AD assets, some from Russia also. Use of C130 would requires a package to give close air sp, peripheral support from Iranian AF, in short local air superiority, for given duration, ECM and ECCM measures and protection from ground AD, besides such package has to take shortest entry and exit route.