Background
I was in Bangladesh in 93-94 to attend the Staff Course. The Staff College, which is known as Defence Services Command and Staff College was the highest institution of military learning at that time. It was manned by faculty from the Royal Navy, RAF and the British Army, on deputation, till 92-93 and ours was the first course which had entirely Bangladeshi Directing Staff ( Faculty) . All the high ranking dignitaries of Bangladesh and visiting foreign government functionaries visited the College including the PM Begum Khaleda Zia and Md Yunus who met the foreign officers at the college.There were participants from 14 countries in the course. Their NDC was established much later. I found that I had a lot of free time so I devoted the extra time to in analyzing how the country functions. The conclusions that I came to were very interesting.
Governance
Armed Forces Division. Ever since the first coup, the Army has been in power. The Government of Bangladesh has an Armed Forces Division, a Tri-services division headed by a serving Major General who heads it at the will and pleasure of the Army Chief. He is known as the Principal Staff Officer. The PSO decides which file goes to the PM for signature. The audit authority for expenses of the military starts with GoB/AFD/…..letter no. The bureaucracy does not wield power over the military but provides secretarial support. The MoD is not of much consequence. All those selected for the BCS (Bangladesh Civil Services) spend the first term in the BMA (Bangladesh Military Academy) which would be similar to the first term of our IMA. The alignment is near perfect. The Navy and Air Force are subservient to the Army. A Major with 9 yrs service could denigrate a Wg Cdr with 20 yrs of service publicly and get away with it!
Directorate General of Forces Intelligence.
The DGFI is a Tri-Service organization headed by a serving Major General. It is modelled on the same lines of ISI of Pakistan as far as intelligence collection is concerned.
Inter Services Public Relations. The ISPR is a Tri-service organization headed by a serving Major General and is on the same lines as the ISPR of Pakistan.
The Army knows what is happening in the country (DGFI), it decides what people should see and hear (ISPR) and it decides how the country is governed (AFD). To prevent sanctions, the facade of civilian control is propagated.
In one of the many informal discussions in the syndicate room the leanings of Generals by name was being discussed. X is pro-China, Y is pro-Pak, Z is pro-India and so on and so forth. It depends on how much time that officer spends in foreign countries. I asked “Is any one Pro-Bangladesh?” The directing staff announced a tea break.
There were attempts to justify the genocide of ‘71 by stating that the Pakistani soldiers were told that the people that they were killing were Hindus.
Anti India Indocrination
1.The perception within BA was created that in the treaty of friendship signed between Sheikh Mujibur Rehman and Indira Gandhi had a provision for Sheikh Mujibur Rehman to call for Indian Army (IA) help if there was an uprising against him. It indicates no trust in the BA. There was a plan to create Rakhi Bahini which was supposed to form the inner security ring of Sheikh Mujibur Rehman, which never fructified.
2. The ex-Mukti Bahini, which was formed by 67 officers of PA who deserted before the 1971 war were given two years of ante-date seniority for fighting the liberation war over those who were repatriated from Pakistan Army (PA) after the war who were 1100.
3. Those who were repatriated formed the majority within the BA. They sidelined the 67 Ex Mukti Bahini officers. In PA they enjoyed greater pay, perks and privileges when compared to what Bangladesh could provide. They hold India responsible for this decline.
If the pro-Pak lobby is in majority at the Generals level a coup like this is expected, followed by a pro Pakistan government. Maybe we need to give more vacancies for Army officers from Bangladesh in the courses they come for. If we can win over the Generals of Bangladesh, we can have a pro-India Government in Bangladesh.
Territorial Expansion
The coastal islands started to submerge due to rising sea levels long before Global Warming became a fashionable expression. With the rise in population there will be no resources to grow food in terms of land to feed them. The Bangladeshi flag had their national flower on it initially, then it changed to the map of Bangladesh. Then to the red Sun. When asked why the change to the Sun, I was told that the map boundaries can change! Illegal emigration had to be encouraged so that the population migrates to India for economic reasons. They change the demography of districts surrounding Bangladesh and when time is ripe they will democratically vote to become a part of Bangladesh,changing the map . This was reported by me in ’93. Economic migration through porous borders cannot be prevented. It was recommended that these migrants should be disenfranchised. CAA is a good thing to happen as far as disenfranchisement goes.
Enemy No.1
India is enemy number 1 and periodically hatred against India is whipped up as that is the reason for the existence of the Army. When asked in a forum as to what will India gain by attacking Bangladesh, when historically the nations attack mainly to usurp wealth by force, what is so attractive in Bangladesh that India will be motivated to carry out such a misadventure? There was silence. If at all India attacks, their strategy would be to withdraw when the IA establishes contact all the way up to Dhaka, then get out of uniform, merge with the population and get into grey zone warfare.
Current Situation
In my opinion, the Awami League won the election and it was observed by many countries who have stated that there was no rigging as made out now even though the BNP boycotted it. International observers, including those from the US, Canada, Russia, the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), and the Arab Parliament, have termed the last general elections in Bangladesh as free, fair, and peaceful. The OIC delegation, for instance, observed the entire electoral process and concluded that it was transparent, free, and orderly. Ref. 1 & 2
The judiciary did a flip flop on the percentage of reservations for the descendants of freedom fighters. Sheikh Hasina’s government reduced reservations to 5% from 30%. On an appeal, it was reinstated at 30%. The government appealed against the order of the judge and the higher court reduced it again to 5%. So the fuel for agitation was cut off. However, since the agitation was fizzling out violence broke out orchestrated by a small minority which may have been carefully crafted by BA. The Army refused to get involved in suppressing the agitation. Sheikh Hasina would have been killed if she had not agreed to board the ac and come to India. It was a carefully orchestrated coup. ISI has been in Bangladesh since 93. ISI presence is nothing new. So, let there be no doubt as to who the Chief Advisor is advising. If a PM falls out of line, these agencies ensure that (s)he is not re-elected. If the level of difference is high, then a coup is carried out to oust the PM. In this case it is actually a sophisticated military coup so that it does not attract sanctions from the democratic West, even though the Army Chief is married to Sheikh Hasina’s niece. She did not flee Bangladesh; she was deposited at Hindan using a BAF Hercules (C 130) ac. The question of Sheikh Hasina being sent to Bangladesh is remote.
The people
I was in Bangladesh, three months after the demolition of the Babri Masjid. The anti-Indian feelings were extremely high among the establishment. Begum Khaleda Zia was in power heading a BNP Govt. I was told that I should not leave the campus without my sponsor student for my own security. I was under hostile, intimidating surveillance. I still used to go to the local market to buy my groceries. The shop keepers did not want money for what I bought because I was an Indian. I had to force them, telling them that I would go to another shop next time. Even in those times of heavy anti-Indian sentiments the people were very happy seeing an Indian Air Force officer. Even now the grass root feelings will be pro-India. The population was indebted to India. The respect they had when they came to know that I am an Indian, had to be seen to be believed. They are a very proud people, very proud of Bengali culture. All ladies wore saris. I spotted one who wore salwar kameez as she was brought up in Europe and found sari to be cumbersome. Many of them wore bindis even though they were Muslim. Durga puja was celebrated in a manner that no one felt that they were Muslims. Fanatics were few. Between culture and Religion, culture takes the prime space.
The event that initiated ill will against Pakistan was when Pakistan tried to impose Urdu as the national language in the 50s which was opposed by the culturally sensitive Bengalis. They had 7 language struggles, the last one was in 1971. The Indian effort in liberation of Bangladesh is downplayed at every opportunity. That is the official line of the Army and the establishment. Since the Army is in actual power, we cannot ignite the minds of the people directly. We need to cultivate the Army. Even though the analysis is three decades old, the framework still remains the same.
I feel that the current turmoil is a temporary phase. No international agency is willing to deal with the Chief Advisor. They ask for the real government to deal with. Election is inevitable. The few who orchestrated this violent coup will not win under the current constitution so they want to change the constitution, but people ask where the constituent assembly is. This downward spiral will continue till the people get fed up and there will be a revolution or a coup. There were innumerable coups. There are reports of a high level delegation visiting Pakistan and an ISI led delegation from Pakistan visiting Bangladesh. If the current dispensation in Bangladesh wants to follow Pakistan knowing fully well the situation in Pakistan, they may reach the status of a bankrupt, failed state ,etc,before Pakistan reaches that state. Md Yunus cannot hold on any longer. Time has run out already and even the BNP cadres are restive. They are demanding elections. Army will have to conduct elections in a free and fair manner with international observers under the current constitution and then alone reforms can take place as per the will of the people. The alternative is that a violent upheaval may again take place.
References
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