"While Bangla Desh remains on boil; Iran continues to threaten attack on Israel to revenge assassination of a stooge, four US Navy Carrier Battle Groups are on operational deployment alongwith Nuclear Submarines in different parts of the Globe, India needs to look into its long term military objectives.
It is already too late but as the saying goes 'it is never too late' we need to seriously view/review our dependence on our supposed Conventional weapons superiority. Should we not look into Conventional-Nuclear Integration and adopt a Doctrinal Approach?" - Gp Capt TP Srivastava
Global Instability : A New Norm
Unabated turbulence and instability in international domain has become a norm. Nation states are in a state of flux due to internal as well external influences/conflicts. Unpredictable nature of global events, which keep occurring with amazing regularity has forced virtually every nation to examine and beef up its security. The term ‘regional’ or ‘localised’ conflicts has lost its meaning. Any conflict in any part of the globe invariably effects nations not even remotely connected with cause of conflicts. Hence without being directly involved in the conflict among nations, adverse effects are felt by all nations albeit to a varying degree. Turmoil does not appear to be dying down. On the contrary with each passing day new and hitherto unknown events/parameters keep the governing apparatus of all nations on toes.
There is a very thin line demarcating unstable peace vis-à-vis full blown conflict. A classic example is situation prevailing along Line of Control between India and Pakistan. Similar or a shade worse situation obtains between Israel and most of its neighbours. International border demarcation continues to be an issue between India and China. A nation with better weapons does not necessarily win the war. Instead a nation, which has consciously adopted sane strategy invariably wins the war. Strategies have to be worked out during peace time.
Weapons acquisition and development is the most important factor, which enables a nation state to practice and spread its policies. Economic muscle power and technological prowess are the basic determinants of Military muscle power obtained by way of acquiring modern weapons. But merely having weapons is not good enough. In order to maintain peace with friendly and/or hostile neighbours clear and unambiguous intent must be made public. Diplomacy can fail almost instantaneously as happened in case of USA and Iran in 1979. Russia and Ukraine, which were part of erstwhile USSR till 1989, are currently involved in one of the most brutal war of attrition. Likewise ongoing disastrous conflict between Israel and ‘non-state actors’ clearly highlights a major postulate of modern wars; holding modern weapons is no guarantee of security. A ‘non state actor’ HAMAS has stood firm, virtually blow for blow against Israel, touted as fifth most powerful nation. It is the ‘INTENT’ and strategy worked out during peace time not only for the threats that stare into one’s face but also the totally unexpected as happened on 5th August, 2024 to Bangla Desh.
Deterrence and Geography
India is a unique country, perhaps the only country in the world. Land borders with Bangla Desh, China and Pakistan are in excess of 10,000 km. If maritime boundaries are taken into account India’s borders will be in excess of 20,000 km. No other nation in the world faces such ‘geographical predicament’ with hostile/unstable/failed nation states surrounding India 360 degree. Till Doklam fiasco took place Indo-China border was relatively calm. But after that event Indo-China border is as ‘LIVE’ as Indo-Pak border, most of which is in the most inhospitable terrain anywhere in the world. With Bangla Desh on boil, the relatively dormant border will/may become as active as with other two nations. Nepal and Bhutan border is geographically a part of Indo-China border. Will or can China do a ‘Tibet’ and move into either nation virtually overnight? Military strategists of fifties also believed that China will not over run Tibet overnight. But it did happen. China took that decision and action because there was no deterrence in place to deter China from embarking on the (mis)adventure. Contiguity enabled China to occupy a nation, the only such event post 2nd world war. USA and then USSR were involved in Cold War and happenings in the 3rd world did not bother them.
An excellent example of Chinese mindset of an expansionist regime (apart from calling themselves the Middle Kingdom) emerges from recently concluded Olympics, where USA and China won 40 gold medals each. Technically USA has achieved 1st position in medals tally but Chinese media claims that China has achieved 1st position. China’s logic is supported by the fact that HongKong and Taiwan (Chinese Taipei) have won two gold medals each thereby taking Chinese tally of gold medals to 44. China has directly claimed that Taiwan is part of China. Such approach is also manifested in China’s continued attempts to rename villages in Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh, which is claimed by China.
Yet another strategic gamble by China is its ‘cosmetic’ support of ‘No First Use’ (NFU) policy of nuclear weapons but with a caveat. On international platforms Chinese media has been categorical that NFU policy is not applicable in respect of nations occupying Chinese territory. India, thus becomes a target for Chinese nukes.
Abolishing Nukes : A Hoax
Every now and then some group and/or individual/s start preaching about abolishing all nukes. Whenever such pronouncements appear either in print or during international seminars, one is forced to conclude that those propagating/suggesting such options are either intellectually deranged and/or deaf, blind and mute. Suffice to mention;
· China is creating and upgrading its silos and continues to produce nukes to arrive at some sort of parity with Russia and USA. China is building new missile silos in hundreds. Ongoing modernisation plan of China with specific reference to nukes and delivery vehicles is the most ambitious programme undertaken by China.
· Pasted below is a post from Department of Defence, USA in April, 2024. Incidentally current acting Assistant Secretary of State, USA, Vipin Narang is an Indian;
“In the face of growing threats from Russia, China and North Korea, the Defense Department is considering options to increase the number of nuclear weapons launchers and warheads at its disposal as part of a year-long strategic review, according to a senior Pentagon policy official.”
· Russian stance on use of nukes is more realistic. Putin’s doctrine enunciated in 2020 clearly states that “Russia will exercise nuclear option to neutralize a massive conventional weapon attack if such offensive is deemed to be threat to Russia’s integrity”.
Relevance of Nuclear Treaties
None of the nuclear treaties starting with CTBT are of any relevance in 2024. Currently the only nuclear treaty that is technically ‘valid’ is the START, which was signed between USA and Russia in 2010. Treaty is scheduled to expire in February, 2026. According to treaty Russia and USA are limited to deploy 1550 warheads and 700 delivery vehicles comprising of Manned Bombers, Submarines and ICBMs. Moscow had announced non-adherence to such restrictions in February, 2023 due to ongoing support of Ukraine by USA and NATO nations. Moscow has also declined to enter into any negotiations for further treaty extension.
India’s Dillemma
What has been stated above clearly enunciates that nuclear weapons have become a permanent feature. It is no longer the exclusive prerogative of P-5 nations. A ‘pariah’ state North Korea possessing nukes and compatible delivery vehicles can/and is holding to ransom the most formidable military power of the globe; the USA. How many more nations will become nuclear weapon states cannot be guessed. In fact possession of nukes, by default, ensures uneasy peace not only with neighbours but also globally. North Korea and Israel are near perfect example of the above postulate.
In view of the above India must find answers to following questions;
· What nuclear capabilities in near and long term do we need to be able to create credible deterrence globally, China and Pakistan in particular?
· What immediate measures we must adopt to protect existing nuclear arsenal in order to maintain a formidable and credible second strike capability.
· Should India exercise option of acquisition of manned strategic nuclear bomber?
· Should India develop and operationalise a 10000 km range ICBM on priority?
· Should India concentrate on developing operational miniature nukes?
Indian Option/s
Russian ability to sustain war effort against Ukraine, which is supported by USA and NATO nations for more than two years and counting is unquestionable proof of formidable deterrence that nukes provide to Russia. In fact had Ukraine not committed the strategic blunder of surrendering nukes to Russia after break up of USSR, the ongoing war may not have taken place.
India’s conventional power is on the decline with each passing day. Our air power is woefully short of strike elements, heavy lift capability, force multipliers, PGMs to mention a few. Our maritime power is severely restricted due to sub optimal submarine force, genuine strike carrier battle group. Our land forces are severely stretched operationally because of permanent holding across LoC (Pakistan) and LAC (China). With Bangla Desh on the boil India will have to recaliberate its deployment along the longest land border with its neighbour. It should be quite evident that CONVENTIONAL WEAPONS deterrence will no longer be enough to contain ‘three’ hostile neighbours.
India is an active and perhaps the most important geographic entity of QUAD. China has been vocal about India’s active participation in QUAD activities. India will be required to lead from the front in the emerging Indo-Pacific era, wherein credible nuclear deterrence will play a significant role.
Therefor prudence demands that India re-examine its idealistic ‘NO FIRST USE’ (NFU) policy. Should India not learn from Russia that mere shift in the doctrine of use of nukes has sent powerful signals to the entire ‘Cold War’ entity to behave or else----. Doctrines must change with changing dynamics of global politics. War in Ukraine is a stark reminder of utility of nukes in practicing statecraft in international arena. China, Russia, USA and many other nuclear weapon states are constantly reviewing their nuclear options. Cold War era definition/thinking employment of nukes is no longer valid.
India must not try and ape the west wrt its policy on use of nukes. Option of overt nuclear coercion exercised by Russia has proved its credibility beyond doubt. India must put behind the days of ‘Panchsheel’ behind as part of history and move on to respond to actual/likely happenings in 2024 and beyond. Coercive diplomacy is an art and must be exercised before it is too late. Coercive nuclear signaling in prevailing scenario will almost certainly be a formidable deterrent to all its neighbours.
Continued complacency/hesitation to unequivocally pronounce our intent to use nukes would be counter productive, both in short and long term. The time is ripe to move over from idealistic NFU policy to more practical, pragmatic and potent NBFU (Need Based First Use) policy sooner than later. Conventional-Nuclear option should no longer be viewed as two different options. Low yield tactical nuclear weapons might actually be saner option than long drawn conventional weapon attack to save on time as well as casualties.
It is already too late but ‘it is never too late’ to correct the flawed thinking. India must undertake on priority conventional-nuclear integration option. If Indian decision makers continue to dismiss and/or ignore and fail to arrive at the postulates governing conventional-nuclear integration, the consequences in near future might be disastrous. Conventional-nuclear integration must no longer be viewed as an ‘add-on’ option.
China’s decision to modernize its nuclear forces by more than few notches demands that India review its prevailing policy and concepts and adopt a new deterrent approach, which is in keeping with actual and quantum increase in threat from China. Conventional China does not pose substantive threat from north because PLAAF (Chinese Air Force) ex TAR (Tibet Autonomous Region) does not pose a formidable threat but PLAAF ex Bangla Desh will pose an extremely potent threat.
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