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Col Rajinder Kushwaha

Why the Chinese Invasion of Taiwan is Imminent

News is coming that China was flexing its muscles near Taiwan. Would it go for invasion to integrate Taiwan with China as part of her “One China Policy”? If it does, as the hot news of 37 air violations by China of Taiwan Air Space goes around, it would complete the ‘Global Crescent of Crisis’, from the Middle East to Taiwan through Ukraine.

The atmosphere is ripe for China’s misadventure on Taiwan. It has recently mended fences with India to some extent. Therefore, it can be assumed that India would not trouble her Western sector. On the other hand, the USA was busy with its presidential elections. This provides her with a golden opportunity to materialise what Xi Jinping has been dreaming of since his rise in CCP in 2012.


Xi Jinping's FFYW (Fa Fen, You Wei) Doctrine, aims to prove one’s worth through firm resolve. It seeks to subdue one’s adversaries through offensive and aggressive actions. Economic slump and new political challenges might force Xi Jinping to launch a military offensive against Taiwan.

China wanted to do so during the last US elections in 2020. Accordingly, it launched a diversionary attack in Ladakh to mislead the USA. But, then President, Donald Trump, did not buy the bait. Instead, he had despatched two AC carriers to the South China Sea, which had dampened Xi Jinpin’s spirits. And it got stuck in an aggressive India.


However, now Joe Biden Administration in the USA is at its weakest. Joe Biden is not reckoned as a decisive leader. And China has a window of two months till 20 January 25 to act, when the new administration would take control.

If it was Kamla Harris, it would be all the better because she would be the reincarnation of Joe Biden's indecisiveness. It is very well known that the Democratic administration was controlled by the Global Deep State led by Barack Obama and Bill Clinton. All decisions would come from the Deep State. Kamla Harris would be their ‘dummy’.


If it was Donald Trump the new President, his anti-war stance would dissuade the US military from taking any further action. He would be more focused on ending wars in Europe and the Middle East. Therefore both ways, it is a win-win situation for China. This window of opportunity of two months won’t come again for China.

Ironically, even the USA would like China to get involved in Taiwan. USA would hope that Taiwan could resist its occupation for two months when a new administration comes up. The USA is known for using proxies to engage its rivals or competitors, whether it was Pakistan against the Soviet Union and Russia in Afghanistan or now Ukraine against Russia. In Middle East her proxy is Israel against Iran.


Taiwan has been USA’s frontal state against China . A country of 23 millions has been pain in the neck for China due to active support of USA. And China has been avoiding direct conflict with USA on Taiwanese issue . It does not mean that it accepts Taiwan as a separate nation . It definitely wants to annex it and assimilate into “One China”. The current strongman of China, Xi Jun Ping is more vocal on this, as explained by his FFYW philosophy.

Therefore, China’s attempt would be to finish the job in two months. But mountainous terrain of Taiwan, in the East and south can choke its “quick - win” attempt. Next 48 hours are very crucial, if China has to exploit this window of opportunity. If it fails to do so, the end of the“ One China” -dream for ever.

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