“ —The only thing that kept the Cold War cold was the mutual deterrence afforded by nuclear weapons.” — Chung Moon Joon
Anytime a military conflict breaks out in any part of the world, an ear-splitting noise of the likely beginning of the 3rd World War, is churned out from ramparts of Indian TV Channels. Their self -styled defence experts, both military and non- military, forget the role of WsMD (weapons of Mass destruction) in checkmating the escalation of a military conflict . If one studies military conflicts between nations since 1950, one would note that “restraint” has been the applied option for “nuclear haves”. In fact , it must be noted that US President Harry Truman had to sack his most popular Military commander, General Douglas Mc Arthur, in the Korean war for insisting upon exercising “nuclear option” across “38 Parallel” against North Korea .
In present day scenario, Wars between two “military- equals”, possessing WsMD, follow a path of either WOM (war by other means) or at best, the use of “proxy nations” was encouraged . Take the case of Russia - Ukraine war raging since February 2021. Vladimir Putin’s threat of use of “ nukes”, if USA or NATO intervening, has checkmated USA/ NATO . Despite moral, financial, and military support, USA and Europe can not directly intervene in Ukraine.
Two years of War, so far, has greatly degraded Ukraine economically and militarily . Some sources assert that Ukraine might lose the war by the end of 2024, if war does not stop. Ukraine President , Zelensky has been crying hoarse that it had run out of ammunition to continue the war. What more , having lost almost 70,000 soldiers , Ukraine was not finding more recruits to continue the war. It may be noted that Ukraine has already lost 20% of its territory to Russia . Irony is that despite serious US concerns over declining position of Ukraine , NATO / USA can not directly intervene to retrieve the situation .
This is the contribution and power of WsMD in checkmating the escalation of military conflicts. Important lesson from Ukraine Russian war is that modern wars in 21st Century, can neither be sustained or won by “ borrowed” military ware . After initial ssetback, Russia has geared up its defence production to the level of 2nd World War Efficiency. Self - reliance in military hardware is the key to sustaining protracted war.
In Indian context too, Kargil-99 was a reminder that two nations with nuclear weapons tend to avoid crossing the bottom line of each other, despite unacceptable military provocation . India did not cross LC ( Line of Control) during Kargil conflict in 1999 because of Pakistan’s confirmed position that it would not hesitate to use nuclear option, in the face of huge conventional superiority of India.
One must note that Pakistan boasts of FSD (Full Spectrum Deterrence), because of its ownership of TNWs ( Tactical Nuclear Weapons) of Low Yield which can be employed against advancing forces without collateral damage. Yet it showed “Restraint” when IAF carried out strike against terrorist camp at Balakote , deep inside Pakistan. In fact reports assert that then Prime Minister of Pakistan, Imran Khan, was fully shocked while addressing National Assembly to release Indian Pilot , wing Commander, Abhinanadan. Some reports even claimed that his legs were shaking (KAANPE TAANG RAHI THI), when he spoke. Boasting on social media / TV channels is one thing but to carry out the threat of use of nukes is another.
Take the case of current Israel - Iran conflict which began after Israel struck with a missile on Iranian consulate in Damascus (Syria) on 01 April 2024, thereby killing two Iranian Generals . A credible response was expected from Iran to retaliate the killing . On 16 April 2024 , Iran attacked Israel with drones and missiles . It has been claimed that a total of 331 projectiles , all inclusive, were fired . But they all proved to be a damp squib because 99% were destroyed before they could hit their targets.
A lot of credit was being given to Israel Missile Defence systems , “Iron Dome” and “ Arrow” to have neutralised the incoming Iranian projectiles . However it is now known that Israel has developed a secret early warning system, called “ David’s Sling”. Mounted on an aircraft it detected the launching of the Iranian drones/ missiles in real tune and activated the Missile Defence System. It suggests that Israel systems were technologically far superior to Iran . What more , Iranian action was “predictable”. It had been shrieking revenge since Israeli strike on its Syrian consulate.
This allowed Israel to be prepared for the attack and disallowed Iran to surprise it, as was done by Hamas on 07 October 2023 and almost 1250 Israelis were killed. Despite threats from Iran and Hamas, Israel has not stopped its Gaza operations and reportedly, in a punitive action, has killed some 33000 of Gaza residents.
Though Iran is an ally of Russia and China, who support it against USA . But they cannot rescue it from Israel’s wrath. At best , they can provide only material and moral support. However, technological edge Israel has got , it is unmatchable . On April 19, 2024, Israel carried out a retaliatory strike at Isfahan airport of Iran. It may be noted that Israel is a known but unconfirmed nuclear power, while Iran is still hoping to acquire nuclear weapons. Israel has been attacking nuclear facilities of Iran for decades to disallow it from acquiring the capability . Retaliatory strike was a cautionary step to warn Iran of more serious consequences to strike its nuclear facilities . It seems , Iran has backed down from any further attacks on Israel in the near future . Though one cannot rule out the use of its Proxies such as “Hamas and Hezobullah” militants.
Proxies are the only alternatives to refrain from direct involvement. They are the preferred instruments of waging wars against “Militarily Equal “ adversaries . One can say, while Ukraine was NATO/ USA Proxy against Russia, similarly , Pakistan was a Chinese Proxy against India. In the same vein, one ought to know that USA was hoping to use India as a proxy against China, which India has been cleverly evading it .
Proxy wars are not limited to use of neighbours of your adversary alone but also leads to use of hybrid means to engage your enemy . It involved exploitation of internal vulnerabilities of your adversary ; media misinformation; cultural manipulations, finally, trade and economic sanctions to isolate the enemy . The collapse of Soviet Union, Yugoslavia and Czechoslovakia are prime example of Proxy war.
Even lethality, accuracy and enlarged ranges of non - nuclear weapons discourage use of kinetic weapons and physical contact of soldiers. It has, thus, led to non - kinetic means, which has led wars into “ Non - Contact arena”. In short, “Brute Force Wars” has led to “ Brain Force Wars”, where annexation of territory is not the primary objective but total subjugation without collateral damage. Conflicts are so designed that there are No “ fronts” and “Rears”. The arrival of Biological and Chemical weapons, such as Corona Virus (Covid -19) further redefine the emerging shape of war within conventional weapons “frame work”.
These developments, therefore, rule out “ World War” in the classic sense of the concept. Soldiers won’t zoom across borders but missiles, drones and viruses would fly across the national borders . Nuclear weapons would remain instruments of “Deterrence” unless of course a crazy leader wants to destroy the humanity because once used by one , the escalation of a nuclear conflagration cannot be ruled out.
In a bulletin of atomic scientists in 2019, ( VOL. 75, NO. 6, 273–279), Alon Robock , Oweb B Toon and other wrote about the consequences of a nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan:—
“—The direct effects of this nuclear exchange would be horrible; the authors estimate that 50 to 125 million people would die, depending on whether the weapons used had yields of 15, 50, or 100 kilotons. The ramifications for Indian and Pakistani society would be major and long lasting, with many major cities largely destroyed and uninhabi- table, millions of injured people needing care, and power, transportation, and financial infrastruc- ture in ruins. But the climatic effects of the smoke produced by an India-Pakistan nuclear war would not be confined to the subcontinent, or even to Asia. Those effects would be enormous and global in scope—-“
It is nothing as compared to Sino - US nuclear exchange . A study report on such an exchange, a few years back had suggested that 270 millions would die instantly and 270 would disappear over a period of time . The planet earth would become unliveable because of arrival of nuclear winter . The survivors would envy the dead . Therefore the talk of 3rd world war by some, so called experts, exposes their shallow knowledge of disaster of Hiroshima .
Note what John Hersey had said long ago, “ —What has kept the world safe from the bomb since 1945 has not been deterrence, in the sense of fear of specific weapons, so much as it's been memory. The memory of what happened at Hiroshima.”
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