"Warfare with Disproportionate Outcome Related Exclusively to Weapon Cost" - By Gp Capt TP Srivastava
"Whatever be the final outcome of this war but one thing is certain; Military strategists will have to rethink their dependence on ABM Systems. Asymmetric Warfare is the new Principle of War" - Opines Gp Capt TP Srivastava
Asymmetric warfare can be broadly divided in two categories;
Disproportionate Strength Parameter among adversaries. Classic example of this category of asymmetric warfare was US led attack on Iraq in 1991. USA led a coalition of 37 nation multi-national force (MNF) against Iraq.
Quantum Difference in Quality/Quantity of Weapons. Most modern wars, including both world wars were fought/are being fought with comparable weapon platforms with both sides.
Current War in Israel
Ongoing war in Israel has a totally different texture of war for two reasons;
Israel has not been attacked by any adversary nation. HAMAS, a terrorist organization operating out of Gaza strip has challenged the existence of Israel as a nation.
There is absolutely no comparison of weapon platforms of Israel and HAMAS. Israel is a formidable conventional weapon power (supposedly nuclear as well) with one of the most modern and well trained Air Power. For prosecuting the war so far Israel has used only Air Power. Land forces are in readiness to move in, if at all, and will get involved in possibly the bloodiest urban warfare in recent times. HAMAS weaponry merely consists of unguided liquid fuel rockets and rockets and more rockets. If only HAMAS had Shoulder Launched SAMs! I am merely speculating; does HAMAS have ATGMs or will they use these rockets as ATGMs?
There could not have been, rather there has not been a single instance of such monumental difference in quality of weapons between the adversaries. Israel has the latest technology, in some cases ahead of USA. But the most advanced surveillance/snooping technology failed to detect the spectacular execution plan of HAMAS. Israelis learnt of the disaster when hundreds of unguided rockets exploded, dozens of powered para gliders carried HAMAS terrorists across the electrified fence in the wee hours of 7th October, 2023. A country having one of the most war prepared military equipped with the best weapons available came on its knees.
Super Saturated Strike by unguided conventional warhead equipped rockets launched from primitive launchers struck terror in the hearts of Israelis. One of the finest (as claimed) anti ballistic missile system IRON DOME merely became a mute ‘spectator’ following the trajectories of hundreds of rockets fired by HAMAS. Indeed few rockets were intercepted. What an irony, unguided rockets used by HAMAS might be costing few hundred dollars. But to intercept each one Israel required to fire an ABM costing few thousand dollars on ‘one on one’ basis.
No known ABM System has the capacity to intercept the entire ‘Rocket/Missile’ fleet launched in such large numbers.
Recent Examples and Past Events
Ukraine, which does not have any offensive capable Navy sank/damaged at least three Russian warships/submarine costing millions of dollars with SSM costing, may be few lakh dollars.
Japanese attack on Port Arthur in 1904 followed by Pearl Harbour on 7th December, 1941 are excellent examples. A far more formidable force was decimated by a far inferior force. Surprise and concentration of weapons did the trick as in case of HAMAS attack on Israel.
Trojan Horse must find a mention while discussing surprise attacks on a far more formidable adversary.
India’s Options
Israel is facing the onslaught of a terrorist group. We face Pakistan having a fully trained and equipped military. Location of civilian population in terms of distance across LoC is nearly identical/similar as in case of Gaza strip and Israeli territory. We have never war gamed such scenario, at least as yet. Is there a need to game such scenario?
Should Pakistan choose such option, we will/may not have the luxury of operating Air Power with impunity as Israel is doing because Pakistan will have Shoulder Launched SAMs. Strike on Military targets has a different effect on national ethos and resolve when compared with strike on civil population as is happening in Israel and Gaza strip. There are no military targets for Israel or HAMAS. Targets in Gaza strip are deeply embedded in civilian localities and cannot be identified from the air easily. Or for that matter even from the ground.
Conclusion
Whatever be the final outcome of this war but one thing is certain; Military strategists will have to rethink their dependence on ABM Systems. Asymmetric Warfare is the new Principle of War. Inexpensive weapons viz unguided conventional rockets with warheads, weaponised para gliders, cardboard drones having no radar signatures, which can be launched without emitting any electronic signatures in large numbers simultaneously will surprise any adversary.
HAMAS is believed to have nearly 50000 rockets. Huge stock might still be available to continue with the most ‘Asymmetric War’ of recent times.
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