Alliances and the defence production industry is not what the World Wide Web actually makes it out to be. There’s a lot of dust under the carpet, why things happen and when, these are also captive to dispensations that exist with variable interests. Everyone wants his pound of flesh and keep the animal alive too. What you see is not what it actually is, and what actually is, is too murky to understand.
But having said that, for us to form assumptions that certain balances work in our favor and certain forms of partnerships are the best suited, because historically they are compliant and contemporarily stable is not also right.
There are some things in the Geo strategic confluence you can’t avoid. However dirty the devil is, sometimes you need to be friends with the devil. Cause the capability to cause destruction through conflict and narrative building lies with him. A simple analogy is TRUMP TALKS; the world listens, MERKEL talks; no one listens, Trudeau talks; even the Canadians don’t listen. PM Modi talks; we listen!
While the devil is within the room, the devil as a friend is better than a devil as an enemy. Erstwhile Soviet nations, Austria, Poland, Australia, Japan, and the UK are all small time players in the larger paradigm of a nation’s security. While they might have a diplomatic reach, the military reach has to be weighed with a measure of national interests.
If India in a war with China, who would we run to for assistance? Who would be more interested to help, of course with a bargaining chip? Who has the wherewithal to help, in the form of armouries and cash support? Who can actually forcefully talk peace if diplomacy fails? Who can muster the rest of the flock in sanctioning China and blocking its resources and thereby reducing economic growth? Who has the right to dictate to other nations to not shadow box and create further chaos in an Indo China conflict? Who can actually send its fleet in the South China Sea and create another front of engagement. Be a threat in being, in war assistance and to be used for conflict termination.
All the above questions will answer doubts like why our geo strategic interests are biased towards the US today while maintaining Russia as an all-time friend. Look at our neighborhoods, the internal turmoil, the strife, the failing governance, the failed economies, and the radicalism. They have issues that have plagued them that will take years to resolve. In an unsteady neighborhood, it’s good to look for strong outside support, just in case the devil knocks on the door and we are unprepared.
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